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北京时间·🕒 发布 03-20 17:57:16时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 23:16:03回填·⚡ 决策 06-18 00:31:24·131.6 天前
Lumentum(LITE)管理层确认InP衬底为最大供应链瓶颈，AXT(AXTI)作为核心供应商迎提价与需求催化
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$LITE Transcript from Conference Call: "The thing that keeps me up at night most is: Substrates. Less so sort of reacto…
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +15%、仅下一个交易日，不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +15%(半仓)/+30%(清仓) · 止损 -10% · 时间止损 3日
失效/反转 LITE后续澄清衬底短缺已解决或AXTI否认产能紧张
不做 LITE.US
供应链瓶颈对LITE是双刃剑(印证需求强但限制出货)，且作为中大市值标的，单一材料短缺不足以驱动明显单边行情，缺乏明确edge
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$LITE Transcript from Conference Call:
"The thing that keeps me up at night most is: Substrates.
Less so sort of reactors and getting the right tools into the fab, although it’s not a zero challenge."
They basically went out and said $AXTI is the bottleneck for photonics.
Especially if InP substrates keeps $LITE's CEO up at night.
I've been mentioning it for the past few months, if AXT they control the substrate supply, they have a lot of pricing power over $LITE to $COHR and America's AI buildout.
I've seen a ton of misinterpretation on X saying: "Seven-year agreement with Sumitomo". But they literally said there was supply tightness Today. And the agreement doesn't mean there will be enough supply for 7 years, especially when China export controls start to kick in on upstream feedstock/materials required by Japanese supply chains to make then.
This is before Photonics has even started to ramp up.
My $AXTI bottleneck thesis is playing out real time and we got new confirmation from $LITE that InP substrates is a bottleneck.
"The thing that keeps me up at night most is: Substrates.
Less so sort of reactors and getting the right tools into the fab, although it’s not a zero challenge."
They basically went out and said $AXTI is the bottleneck for photonics.
Especially if InP substrates keeps $LITE's CEO up at night.
I've been mentioning it for the past few months, if AXT they control the substrate supply, they have a lot of pricing power over $LITE to $COHR and America's AI buildout.
I've seen a ton of misinterpretation on X saying: "Seven-year agreement with Sumitomo". But they literally said there was supply tightness Today. And the agreement doesn't mean there will be enough supply for 7 years, especially when China export controls start to kick in on upstream feedstock/materials required by Japanese supply chains to make then.
This is before Photonics has even started to ramp up.
My $AXTI bottleneck thesis is playing out real time and we got new confirmation from $LITE that InP substrates is a bottleneck.
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