🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 03-22 09:07:13时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 23:13:01回填·⚡ 决策 06-18 00:26:38·131.8 天前
KOL基于降息预期归零看空XLU、看多CRCL
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
The War in Iran threw a huge knife into the trade for $XLU … We went from 3 est. rate cuts this year to 0. It’s good fo…
不做 XLU.US
KOL复述宏观利率预期变化(降息预期归零)，该宏观信息早已在美债收益率和联邦基金期货中充分定价，XLU作为大盘ETF无新信息edge；推文属主观观点，无新催化剂。
不做 CRCL.US
美股无此常见活跃代码(疑似拼写错误或未上市标的)，无法唯一消歧，无法交易。
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The War in Iran threw a huge knife into the trade for $XLU …
We went from 3 est. rate cuts this year to 0.
It’s good for companies like $CRCL that do better in higher interest rate environments.
But bad for utilities. At this point I genuinely don’t know how the War ends up or if Trump tacos.
Im personally still holding, but a lot more risk of the power/grid modernization + rerating trade since they relied on multiple rate cuts.
And too many second order effects with energy implications.
But just putting out some risk disclosures around original thesis
We went from 3 est. rate cuts this year to 0.
It’s good for companies like $CRCL that do better in higher interest rate environments.
But bad for utilities. At this point I genuinely don’t know how the War ends up or if Trump tacos.
Im personally still holding, but a lot more risk of the power/grid modernization + rerating trade since they relied on multiple rate cuts.
And too many second order effects with energy implications.
But just putting out some risk disclosures around original thesis
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