🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 03-25 01:22:16时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 23:07:25回填·⚡ 决策 06-18 00:10:17·131.7 天前
KOL发帖强烈看好AAOI光模块业务及美国本土制造溢价，给出激进营收预测
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
If you're new to $AAOI: It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase. However, this loo…
不做 AAOI.US
KOL喊单帖，标的YTD已大涨175%接近ATH，82亿市值已充分price-in光模块超级周期预期；帖子给出的远期单季14亿美元营收预测过于激进，缺乏新实质催化剂，高位追涨风险收益比极差
不做 SNDK.US
SNDK(SanDisk)早在2016年已被收购退市，KOL提及大概率为笔误或指代不明，无对应可交易标的
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原文全文
展开原文 · 909 字
If you're new to $AAOI:
It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase.
However, this looks like the photonics equivalent of $SNDK.
And it so happens the center of the optical transceiver supercycle...
At a $8.2B valuation we can look at projections:
(est. Capacity * ASP Projections)
Q2 2026: ~$312.1M
Q4 2026: ~$1.41B
Q2-2027: ~$1.53B
Q4-2027: ~$1.97B
If $AAOI ends up leapfrogging the $55B $LITE in revenue...
$8B MC looks a little absurd for revenue growth off 30-40% margins…
Re-rating potential is enormous.
Worst case scenario if they fail internal laser fab and buys off $COHR.
Is it ends up a Made in America Innolight / Eoptolink (Both $66B-$90B+ Chinese companies)?
The optionality of making the entire supply chain in America is understated.
$AAOI is one of my few high conviction longs aside from $SIVE and $LITE if they can deliver on projections.
It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase.
However, this looks like the photonics equivalent of $SNDK.
And it so happens the center of the optical transceiver supercycle...
At a $8.2B valuation we can look at projections:
(est. Capacity * ASP Projections)
Q2 2026: ~$312.1M
Q4 2026: ~$1.41B
Q2-2027: ~$1.53B
Q4-2027: ~$1.97B
If $AAOI ends up leapfrogging the $55B $LITE in revenue...
$8B MC looks a little absurd for revenue growth off 30-40% margins…
Re-rating potential is enormous.
Worst case scenario if they fail internal laser fab and buys off $COHR.
Is it ends up a Made in America Innolight / Eoptolink (Both $66B-$90B+ Chinese companies)?
The optionality of making the entire supply chain in America is understated.
$AAOI is one of my few high conviction longs aside from $SIVE and $LITE if they can deliver on projections.
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