🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 03-26 00:18:25时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 23:05:07回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 23:56:21·131.8 天前
Twitter KOL发布Lumentum OCS供应链映射帖(涉及P4O/TDY/LITE/GOOGL)
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
So just checked out the comments... $P4O does look like a potential upstream $LITE supplier at a $34M MC. How it likely…
不做 LITE.US
KOL供应链映射帖，无增量催化剂。LITE供应GOOGL OCS已是市场明牌，上游玻璃晶圆供应商的挖掘对LITE基本面和估值无实质影响，纯噪音。
不做 TDY.US
供应链映射帖中的中间环节(MEMS代工)，无实质性订单或业绩增量信息，对TDY这种多元化巨头而言OCS业务占比极小，纯噪音。
不做 GOOGL.US
作为最终需求方，此帖未提供TPU capex或OCS渗透率的新增量信息，仅重复已知供应链逻辑，纯噪音。
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研究档案
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原文全文
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So just checked out the comments...
$P4O does look like a potential upstream $LITE supplier at a $34M MC.
How it likely maps:
-> Plan Optik $P4O (Glass Wafers)
-> Teledyne $TDY or Silek (Mem Foundries)
-> $LITE (OCS Switches)
-> $GOOGL (TPUs)
However, $LITE likely dual sources with Corning ( $GLW ) on the glass wafer level.
P4O is a known supplier to Infineon, Samsung, and others, so not exactly a random company.
€3.35 million vs. 35.52M MC is very healthy balance sheet.
That being said:
-> That doesn't exactly mean this translates to material revenue boosts unless they start price hike (given glass wafers are likely a very small part of $LITE OCS BOM).
I do personally own shares, after reading this.
Since $LITE OCS potential supply chain chokepoints is strategically valuable. Maybe not so much so as financially valuable.
But their core thesis that Plan Optik's Glass Flow and MDF finishing are effectively irreplaceable for OCS packaging checks out.
Of course, hyperscaler supply chains are heavily guarded, so no way to know 100%.
All credit goes to follower comments.
But TLDR:
Supply Chain Mapping
-> $P4O -> Foundries -> $LITE -> $GOOGL is very likely from their analysis.
As for being a chokepoint in $LITE OCS supply chain... dunno if it translates materially.
Again, not recommending this at all.
Just thought the $LITE OCS supply chain mapping like this very interesting, and that it would be a waste of the follower kinda posted all this work into the void.
$P4O does look like a potential upstream $LITE supplier at a $34M MC.
How it likely maps:
-> Plan Optik $P4O (Glass Wafers)
-> Teledyne $TDY or Silek (Mem Foundries)
-> $LITE (OCS Switches)
-> $GOOGL (TPUs)
However, $LITE likely dual sources with Corning ( $GLW ) on the glass wafer level.
P4O is a known supplier to Infineon, Samsung, and others, so not exactly a random company.
€3.35 million vs. 35.52M MC is very healthy balance sheet.
That being said:
-> That doesn't exactly mean this translates to material revenue boosts unless they start price hike (given glass wafers are likely a very small part of $LITE OCS BOM).
I do personally own shares, after reading this.
Since $LITE OCS potential supply chain chokepoints is strategically valuable. Maybe not so much so as financially valuable.
But their core thesis that Plan Optik's Glass Flow and MDF finishing are effectively irreplaceable for OCS packaging checks out.
Of course, hyperscaler supply chains are heavily guarded, so no way to know 100%.
All credit goes to follower comments.
But TLDR:
Supply Chain Mapping
-> $P4O -> Foundries -> $LITE -> $GOOGL is very likely from their analysis.
As for being a chokepoint in $LITE OCS supply chain... dunno if it translates materially.
Again, not recommending this at all.
Just thought the $LITE OCS supply chain mapping like this very interesting, and that it would be a waste of the follower kinda posted all this work into the void.
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