KOL Serenity 发帖复盘无人机板块亏损，承认AVAV丢失SCAR项目且地缘冲突利好大型国防商

If you don't know my style by now:

I identify upcoming sectors (photonics, memory, drones), then go long on the entire supply chain.

I'm not always right, though.

$AVAV and the drone sectors were my biggest losses this year outside of $RDDT ( $OSS did end up 60%+ ).

I still believe fundamentally companies like $AIRO, $LPTH and others are extremely solid long term. ( $AIRO is still up ~15%, but lost majority of it's 70%+ gains, Draganfly dropped way more)

And there's very unrealistic expectations from looking at $SNDK supercycles that everything can go up 100% a month.

The main catalyst I've identified around that sector was the Venezuela invasion's usage of hidden drone + edge defense contracts/subcontractors.

And I expected there to be follow-up funding into the sector.

However, I mentioned I de-risked around the Greenland deal (majority of defense contractors crashed) but kept smaller concentration in stuff like $AVAV.

SCAR program loss to others like $AVAV was even a bigger surprise and I lost even more.

Unfortunately, the War in Iran focused around larger defense contractors like L3 Harris, $NOC and private companies like Anduril, and some energy directed suppliers like $LASR.

So there weren't many tailwind recoveries for drone companies.

That being said, I do know how to cut losses.

But I still get a lot of crap saying oh look at "X stock they've liked earlier in the year".

I'm very transparent when it comes to these things: A certain executive in the $IREN community are known to delete all their posts after their followers lose 90% on $BKKT or $ASST post-dilution.

Majority of my stocks I identify are extremely solid fundamentally so they either hold their level since my original thesis.

And I post risk-levels / conviction-levels with them too (risky ones obviously have more downside).

I have skin in the game compared to others that just post hot takes.

So if my thesis is wrong, I lose money personally (there's ton of more fills l