🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 03-28 09:10:05时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:43:24回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 17:39:06·132.1 天前
KOL发帖反驳前期看空观点，看多AAOI光收发器TAM并认为HIMX卡脖子逻辑有瑕疵
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
Great callout on $HIMX and now down -31.54% (accelerated by macro). This is a good lesson around chokepoints. They miss…
不做 AAOI.US
纯KOL观点复盘帖，无新基本面硬催化剂（如订单或业绩），仅凭逻辑探讨和喊单不具备交易edge，属噪音。
不做 HIMX.US
KOL仅指出前期看空逻辑瑕疵，未提供基本面反转催化剂，且股价已大跌，无明确做多edge。
不做 AXTI.US
仅在帖子中作为对比提及，无实质性催化剂与交易逻辑。
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Great callout on $HIMX and now down -31.54% (accelerated by macro).
This is a good lesson around chokepoints.
They missed two things on this "Meme Stock":
- Chokepoints can be designed out.
- Chokepoint may not be material enough to translate into revenue like $AXTI.
$AAOI on the other hand, has material TAM increase if you look at optical transciever projections that they've been bearish on.
Largely disagreed with a large number of photonics picks (eg. calling for $POET at 7x the valuation over $SIVE the laser supplier).
Or being bearish on $AAOI without looking at optionality + revenue ramp in a massive TAM.
But we'll see who's right or wrong in a years time, most of the recent drop across the board was accelerated by macro (not whether a $SIVE or $HIMX thesis was wrong).
But very interesting to see chip designers go the other way of plays mentioned by analysts.
This is a good lesson around chokepoints.
They missed two things on this "Meme Stock":
- Chokepoints can be designed out.
- Chokepoint may not be material enough to translate into revenue like $AXTI.
$AAOI on the other hand, has material TAM increase if you look at optical transciever projections that they've been bearish on.
Largely disagreed with a large number of photonics picks (eg. calling for $POET at 7x the valuation over $SIVE the laser supplier).
Or being bearish on $AAOI without looking at optionality + revenue ramp in a massive TAM.
But we'll see who's right or wrong in a years time, most of the recent drop across the board was accelerated by macro (not whether a $SIVE or $HIMX thesis was wrong).
But very interesting to see chip designers go the other way of plays mentioned by analysts.
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