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北京时间·🕒 发布 03-28 22:15:52时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:43:11回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 17:38:25·132.0 天前
KOL分析Neocloud资本结构：看好Nebius(NBIS)融资优势，提示IREN稀释与CoreWeave(CRWV)债务风险
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My thoughts on $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV and the current Neocloud market. One of them ends up as the next AWS in 5 years: My…
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
怎么买 限价买入 不高于消息价 +3%、2 个交易日内有效
怎么卖 止盈 +10%(半仓)/+20%(清仓) · 止损 -8% · 时间止损 5日
失效/反转 大厂backlog取消或NVDA撤资传闻
不做 IREN.US
KOL指出60亿ATM增发稀释风险，属已知持续压制因素，无新催化，做多受损，做空盈亏比不佳
不做 CRWV.US
KOL指出15亿+年息债务风险，属已知基本面，无突发暴雷催化，做空高波动AI云风险极大
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原文全文
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My thoughts on $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV and the current Neocloud market.
One of them ends up as the next AWS in 5 years:
My guess it’s Nebius.
It's not winner takes all (DigitalOcean is there with Amazon), but there's clearly superior structures and likely winners.
The downside:
-> Low chance of rate cuts from Iran conflict.
->Broader market doesn't appear to want to fund the CapEx cycle. But want to reap the benefits
With $IREN:
We get it, 4.5GW = X revenue. But who is funding the GPUs?
Whoever is buying into the $6,000,000,000 ATM right now.
The winners will be whoever enters after holders get fully diluted.
The reality is, they don't have enough funding to monetize their capacity through GPUs without colo models.
And they didn't find other financing methods, so they went through ATMs because of a cult community that will buy into anything they sell.
However, I agree it will be accretive long term. Just not as much for the retail buying in now.
With $CRWV:
They did everything right... $NVDA backing. Hyperscaler clients...
But they financed completely wrong. Now, $1.5B+ yearly debt interest is eating Coreweave alive and cuts into FCF.
Almost like credit card debt, Coreweave gets a job to pay off that debt, but eventually, the debt interest is too high that working doesn't really cover that and expansion too.
If any company goes down, $CRWV is the first to go the massive debt load and interest.
With $NBIS:
They're doing as much as they can right... $NVDA funding $2B to fund capex.
Convertible note offerings (convertible note short hedging is annoying for short term price appreciation).
But this is the best way to do financing structures with much lower interest than Coreweave.
They now have ~$46B+ in backlog from $META and $MSFT, two of the most profitable hyperscalers out there, without direct OpenAI linked contagion like Coreweave.
And unlike others; there’s appreciation from their other companies (Clickhouse equity appreciation: a
One of them ends up as the next AWS in 5 years:
My guess it’s Nebius.
It's not winner takes all (DigitalOcean is there with Amazon), but there's clearly superior structures and likely winners.
The downside:
-> Low chance of rate cuts from Iran conflict.
->Broader market doesn't appear to want to fund the CapEx cycle. But want to reap the benefits
With $IREN:
We get it, 4.5GW = X revenue. But who is funding the GPUs?
Whoever is buying into the $6,000,000,000 ATM right now.
The winners will be whoever enters after holders get fully diluted.
The reality is, they don't have enough funding to monetize their capacity through GPUs without colo models.
And they didn't find other financing methods, so they went through ATMs because of a cult community that will buy into anything they sell.
However, I agree it will be accretive long term. Just not as much for the retail buying in now.
With $CRWV:
They did everything right... $NVDA backing. Hyperscaler clients...
But they financed completely wrong. Now, $1.5B+ yearly debt interest is eating Coreweave alive and cuts into FCF.
Almost like credit card debt, Coreweave gets a job to pay off that debt, but eventually, the debt interest is too high that working doesn't really cover that and expansion too.
If any company goes down, $CRWV is the first to go the massive debt load and interest.
With $NBIS:
They're doing as much as they can right... $NVDA funding $2B to fund capex.
Convertible note offerings (convertible note short hedging is annoying for short term price appreciation).
But this is the best way to do financing structures with much lower interest than Coreweave.
They now have ~$46B+ in backlog from $META and $MSFT, two of the most profitable hyperscalers out there, without direct OpenAI linked contagion like Coreweave.
And unlike others; there’s appreciation from their other companies (Clickhouse equity appreciation: a
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