KOL发布Sivers向下游扩展复制Lumentum路径的主观投资推演

Can't $SIVE just pull a $LITE and TAM expansion down the ELS stack?

I'm getting early stage $LITE flashbacks (Oclaro, NeoPhotonics, Cloud Light)...

Here's my thesis/idea:

on how Sivers can capture the ~$300-$400 ELS (from $50-100 arrays) and become a $10B+ company.

How this plays out:
-> Sivers is needs funding.
-> Get NRE prepay or PIPE (eg. $AXTI/Northland)

-> Say "Hey, $AVGO and $LITE are going to choke your custom AI cluster margins".

----> get $META / $AMZN / $MSFT capital injection for multi-source supply for next ASIC clusters cause they're scared.

Esp. with $NVDA funding $4B to securing supply from $LITE and $COHR... then PTSD from the current EML capacity bottleneck.

It's easier than people think.

-> US spinoff of photonics arm (markets don't like investing in legacy companies).

- - - - - > This will likely work in 2026, bc CPO/photonics is hot, now and not like 2024-early 2025.

-> Raise enough to automate wafer probers and fund the module NPI.

-> Fab-lite test model: develop probe cards and test inhouse, but push capex to OSATs.

-> Buy SiPh packaging IP (or just continue JDM with O-Net and $POET)

-> Keep their Glasgow InP fab for in-house testing for iteration/raw epitaxial.

-> Outsource lithography, etching, etc. stuff to Win Semi + others (don't do capex heavy things yourself)

-> Then just $SIVE can just hand tested lasers and packaging IP to $FN

And Poof.

You have a independent, mass producible, high margin, ELS module as ELSFP becomes standard.

Then they can do other stuff like buying DSP designs and start consolidating the tech stack.

Instead of cheap $10 laser dies x 6 for a $50-$100 laser array, you have $400 hot swappable modules.

Basically their starting point is owning one of the chokepoints moat in photonics on the laser level...

Then they can go downstream like what $LITE did with EML and optical transceivers.

TLDR:

Sivers ( $SIVE ) holds a rare, independent chokepoint in InP lasers at the exact moment the world