🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘观望把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 03-30 10:19:36时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:42:48回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 17:32:35·131.9 天前
KOL分享AI算力投资轮动逻辑，看好光互连与CPO供应链
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
I think I nailed the institutional bottleneck rotation. -> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung,…
不做 SNDK.US
SanDisk已于2016年被西部数据收购并退市，代码无效，KOL存在口误或认知滞后
观望 LITE.US
光互连核心标的，方向正确但KOL喊单无短期新催化剂，中长期逻辑已充分讨论，等待具体CPO订单或财报确认后再介入
观望 COHR.US
光器件龙头，逻辑同LITE，缺乏短期硬催化，观望等待基本面右侧信号
不做 AAOI.US
小盘光器件股，KOL喊单易遭流动性出货，无实质性新订单催化，风险收益比不佳
不做 MU.US
KOL在文中明确表示存储周期已吃到尾部并转向光子，MU非当前推荐方向
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I think I nailed the institutional bottleneck rotation.
-> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU
-> Frontran institutions with photonics with names like $AAOI, $AXTI $LITE, $COHR.
-> Doing it again now by adding heavily toward SiPh, ELS, and CPO: $SIVE, $TSEM, $SOI, $AEHR, Win Semi, and others.
Of course if you want to play it safe:
$MRVL (captive), $AVGO (captive), $TSM, and $NOK all do it as well, but they're larger players. And getting direct exposure to the next supercycle is ideal.
I still think there's tons of room to grow for memory to EML optical transceivers, but the largest boom is at the start/inflection point of a new architectural cycle.
Macro messing up some trades aside, expecting capital rotation soon toward CPO / ELS supply chains.
TLDR from analyst note: The AI infrastructure investment supercycle follows a strict "bottleneck resolution" sequence:
Compute/GPUs (2023) -> Memory/HBM (2024) -> Interconnect/Networking (2025+).
Translation:
"We judge that the third investment cycle of the AI value chain has officially begun. Following GPUs (2023) and HBM (2024), post-2025, optical interconnects will become the fastest-growing core segment.
2027–2028 will be a critical inflection point where CPO commercialization. 1.6T standardization, and Scale-Up optical transitions align, structurally expanding the TAM of related industries"
Some takeaways:
1. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is moving from the lab to commercial mass production
2. 2027-2028 is the major structural inflection point (good idea to frontrun this now in 2026 from testing with $AEHR to ELS with $SIVE or packaging with $POET).
3. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for optical components, materials, and testing equipment is expected to structurally expand 3x to 5x (I think this is sandbagging a bit).
-> Caught the tail end of memory name rise with $SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, $MU
-> Frontran institutions with photonics with names like $AAOI, $AXTI $LITE, $COHR.
-> Doing it again now by adding heavily toward SiPh, ELS, and CPO: $SIVE, $TSEM, $SOI, $AEHR, Win Semi, and others.
Of course if you want to play it safe:
$MRVL (captive), $AVGO (captive), $TSM, and $NOK all do it as well, but they're larger players. And getting direct exposure to the next supercycle is ideal.
I still think there's tons of room to grow for memory to EML optical transceivers, but the largest boom is at the start/inflection point of a new architectural cycle.
Macro messing up some trades aside, expecting capital rotation soon toward CPO / ELS supply chains.
TLDR from analyst note: The AI infrastructure investment supercycle follows a strict "bottleneck resolution" sequence:
Compute/GPUs (2023) -> Memory/HBM (2024) -> Interconnect/Networking (2025+).
Translation:
"We judge that the third investment cycle of the AI value chain has officially begun. Following GPUs (2023) and HBM (2024), post-2025, optical interconnects will become the fastest-growing core segment.
2027–2028 will be a critical inflection point where CPO commercialization. 1.6T standardization, and Scale-Up optical transitions align, structurally expanding the TAM of related industries"
Some takeaways:
1. CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is moving from the lab to commercial mass production
2. 2027-2028 is the major structural inflection point (good idea to frontrun this now in 2026 from testing with $AEHR to ELS with $SIVE or packaging with $POET).
3. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for optical components, materials, and testing equipment is expected to structurally expand 3x to 5x (I think this is sandbagging a bit).
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