🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 03-30 11:13:55时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:42:44回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 17:28:19·132.2 天前
KOL发表宏观地缘观点，担忧长期战争破坏供应链但主观看好AAOI与LITE
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
I'm still long on markets (now 85% long, now 15% cash/hedges). Even during wartime, I expect many names from $AAOI to $…
不做 AAOI.US
KOL宏观观点帖，无新基本面催化剂，且宏观利空逻辑与个股看多矛盾，属噪音
不做 LITE.US
KOL主观喊单，无实质事件驱动，缺乏可交易的基本面边缘
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I'm still long on markets (now 85% long, now 15% cash/hedges).
Even during wartime, I expect many names from $AAOI to $LITE to outperform.
However...
The World is largely interconnected now.
The current administration might not realize the severity/fragility of upstream supply chains.
They might look at $AAPL "Made in America".
or $TSLA "Made in America" but if you look at the source for Tesla Humanoids:
-> It's in China. Actuator materials stem from Russia feedstock. Materials come from partners in Canada.
-> For Starlink, massive amount of supply chains stem from Win Semi Taiwan to companies in Korea.
For where the funding from OpenAI, private equities, megacap, and others come from:
-> Large part of it comes from UAE, Middle East, and others (that might need to pull out liquidity) as their oil fields get blown up.
Extended disruptions (US ground invasion) for spanning multiple months, is very bearish.
I was initially expecting the "Shock and Awe" and US to claim victory and for short term War shock to be bought back.
But I would not encourage US to head toward a drawn out War.
This especially is not good for Asian partners (SK, Japan) or our allies in Europe either.
The main beneficiaries of War are:
#1: Israel
#2: Russia
The rest of the World, including the US, are getting dragged down from War.
It looks like "Oil/Energy prices going up is good for US":
But it takes down a lot of supply chains that the hyperscalers from $NVDA to even $AAPL relies on.
Even during wartime, I expect many names from $AAOI to $LITE to outperform.
However...
The World is largely interconnected now.
The current administration might not realize the severity/fragility of upstream supply chains.
They might look at $AAPL "Made in America".
or $TSLA "Made in America" but if you look at the source for Tesla Humanoids:
-> It's in China. Actuator materials stem from Russia feedstock. Materials come from partners in Canada.
-> For Starlink, massive amount of supply chains stem from Win Semi Taiwan to companies in Korea.
For where the funding from OpenAI, private equities, megacap, and others come from:
-> Large part of it comes from UAE, Middle East, and others (that might need to pull out liquidity) as their oil fields get blown up.
Extended disruptions (US ground invasion) for spanning multiple months, is very bearish.
I was initially expecting the "Shock and Awe" and US to claim victory and for short term War shock to be bought back.
But I would not encourage US to head toward a drawn out War.
This especially is not good for Asian partners (SK, Japan) or our allies in Europe either.
The main beneficiaries of War are:
#1: Israel
#2: Russia
The rest of the World, including the US, are getting dragged down from War.
It looks like "Oil/Energy prices going up is good for US":
But it takes down a lot of supply chains that the hyperscalers from $NVDA to even $AAPL relies on.
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