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北京时间·🕒 发布 03-31 18:58:43时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:41:59回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 09:26:48·132.5 天前
KOL看多AXTI上游材料瓶颈及SIVE CPO潜力，LITE仅作对比
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Pls stop tagging me in stuff where random retail investors or journalists tries doing an analysis on $AXTI or $SIVE. Fo…
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
怎么买 限价买入 不高于消息价 +3%、当日有效，不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +8%(半仓)/+15%(清仓) · 止损 -5% · 时间止损 3日
失效/反转 KOL删帖或被证伪为出货，或3日内无成交量配合
不做 SIVE.US
代码无法唯一消歧，疑似 Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE.ST) 误标或美股不存在该代码，无法交易
不做 LITE.US
正文仅作为供应链环节对比提及，非推荐买入标的，无交易逻辑
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原文全文
展开原文 · 1,337 字
Pls stop tagging me in stuff where random retail investors or journalists tries doing an analysis on $AXTI or $SIVE.
For $AXTI:
Majority of folks have 0 clue what they’re talking about.
Samsung Foundry or $LITE InP fab are completely different parts of the supply chain and this is like conflating NAND and DRAM as memory.
Even talking about Sumitomo displacing AXT means they don’t understand the upstream extraction/processing/crucible bottlenecks that InP substrate level players like $COHR or Sumitomo don’t do.
For $SIVE:
This is mass inflection point of CPO scale up 2027 onwards.
I have idiots out there with no understanding of photonics looking at gross margin, burn rate, and former revenue numbers for previous years or even the current year.
For the biggest architectural inflection 2027 onwards.
If you look at $MRVL Celestial point its starting volume ramp 2027 and exponentially increasing 2028, 2029.
That’s why I said $SIVE can be a $10B+ company one day since it’s looking at forward growth and this is the earliest out on.
What I do is find alpha:
This is what markets might have mispriced like all the analysts saying 14-17% fwd growth with $RPI.
Then I modeled 55% and it turned out to be 58%.
One is a photonics bottleneck for a reason.
The other is designed into Jabil and Celestial for a reason.
For $AXTI:
Majority of folks have 0 clue what they’re talking about.
Samsung Foundry or $LITE InP fab are completely different parts of the supply chain and this is like conflating NAND and DRAM as memory.
Even talking about Sumitomo displacing AXT means they don’t understand the upstream extraction/processing/crucible bottlenecks that InP substrate level players like $COHR or Sumitomo don’t do.
For $SIVE:
This is mass inflection point of CPO scale up 2027 onwards.
I have idiots out there with no understanding of photonics looking at gross margin, burn rate, and former revenue numbers for previous years or even the current year.
For the biggest architectural inflection 2027 onwards.
If you look at $MRVL Celestial point its starting volume ramp 2027 and exponentially increasing 2028, 2029.
That’s why I said $SIVE can be a $10B+ company one day since it’s looking at forward growth and this is the earliest out on.
What I do is find alpha:
This is what markets might have mispriced like all the analysts saying 14-17% fwd growth with $RPI.
Then I modeled 55% and it turned out to be 58%.
One is a photonics bottleneck for a reason.
The other is designed into Jabil and Celestial for a reason.
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