🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04-02 17:26:18时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:41:10回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 09:09:52·132.4 天前
KOL重提AAOI 1.6T光模块产能旧闻，无新催化剂
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Just a gentle reminder: $AAOI expects to have the largest production capacity of 1.6T optical transceivers in America.…
不做 AAOI.US
KOL重提旧财报电话会议内容（1.6T产能与出货指引），无新催化剂或订单落地，底层信息已充分公开并反映在当前市值中，缺乏预期差。
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Just a gentle reminder:
$AAOI expects to have the largest production capacity of 1.6T optical transceivers in America.
Just as optical TAM is expected to ramp to $100B in a bull case (Lightcounting).
AOI: “We expect that we will soon have the largest production capacity for … 1.6T transceivers in the US” from their former ER transcript.
They expect shipments to begin Q3 of 2026 and projected $378M / month capacity starting H2 2027, which is $4.35B annualized if hyperscalers buy anything they make.
We’re in H1 of 2026, so it’s a tad early to be panicking from market volatility.
Since AOI does the entire supply chain from InP laser fab, design, and assembly all captive.
And especially in the USA + Taiwan operations that they’re reshoring (rather than sourcing to China/Malaysia/Thailand)
Markets miss this part especially:
-> They have TAM expansion optionality for ELS to merchant models in any parts of their vertically integrated supply chain.
$AAOI is trading at $6.4B largely because of execution uncertainty and macro. And execution will always be an speculative overhang until it comes time to deliver.
But if there’s any indication that they hit their targets and macro clears up, we probably won’t see current valuations again.
$AAOI expects to have the largest production capacity of 1.6T optical transceivers in America.
Just as optical TAM is expected to ramp to $100B in a bull case (Lightcounting).
AOI: “We expect that we will soon have the largest production capacity for … 1.6T transceivers in the US” from their former ER transcript.
They expect shipments to begin Q3 of 2026 and projected $378M / month capacity starting H2 2027, which is $4.35B annualized if hyperscalers buy anything they make.
We’re in H1 of 2026, so it’s a tad early to be panicking from market volatility.
Since AOI does the entire supply chain from InP laser fab, design, and assembly all captive.
And especially in the USA + Taiwan operations that they’re reshoring (rather than sourcing to China/Malaysia/Thailand)
Markets miss this part especially:
-> They have TAM expansion optionality for ELS to merchant models in any parts of their vertically integrated supply chain.
$AAOI is trading at $6.4B largely because of execution uncertainty and macro. And execution will always be an speculative overhang until it comes time to deliver.
But if there’s any indication that they hit their targets and macro clears up, we probably won’t see current valuations again.
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