🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘观望把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04-06 14:23:04时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:40:02回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 08:55:45·132.3 天前
KOL喊单CPO/SiPH光子学超级周期，推荐TSEM/AEHR等纯玩标的
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
Please stop trying to model 2025-2026 revenue for future CPO/SiPH ramp… When I looked at $TSEM back at ~$115 last month…
观望 TSEM.US
KOL清单帖喊单，底层为H2 2026 CPO/SiPH远期放量逻辑，缺乏短期硬催化剂；作者自述TSEM已大幅上涨，短期追高盈亏比不佳，观望等回调或产业侧新催化。
观望 AEHR.US
KOL远期逻辑喊单，缺乏短期硬催化剂，观望等回调。
不做 SIVE.US
代码存疑或流动性不足（可能为Sivers Semiconductors OTC），无法有效交易。
不做 SOI.US
代码存疑（可能指Soitec SOI.PA），美股直接代码流动性不足，无法有效交易。
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原文全文
展开原文 · 1,244 字
Please stop trying to model 2025-2026 revenue for future CPO/SiPH ramp…
When I looked at $TSEM back at ~$115 last month (round to $200 now).
The forward p/e compressed to rates like ~16-18 (down to 10-12 in growth scenarios)
Same applies to $AEHR / $SIVE / $SOI /Win Semi and other names.
This is H1 2026. Volume ramp hits H2 2026.
We’re at the very beginning of a massive supercycle and these are my more pure play exposure picks for the next architectural changes in photonics:
For testing, cw lasers, substrates, and foundries in next paradigm shift in the photonics supercycle.
Companies like $LITE or $AAOI that I’ve longed last year cover multiple cycles.
However, the most returns comes from anticipating what benefits the most Mc wise relative to future revenue/TAM growth (not priced into current earnings).
Not looking back at 2 year historical returns to calculate fair value.
And when we’re looking at massive new photonics TAM ($110B+ bull case from lightcounting), largely driven from architecture that use CW lasers as an example or struggle with yields.
A lot of these companies are likely going to re-rate hard.
Especially when you look at the start of the next architectural changes, happening around H2 2026.
When I looked at $TSEM back at ~$115 last month (round to $200 now).
The forward p/e compressed to rates like ~16-18 (down to 10-12 in growth scenarios)
Same applies to $AEHR / $SIVE / $SOI /Win Semi and other names.
This is H1 2026. Volume ramp hits H2 2026.
We’re at the very beginning of a massive supercycle and these are my more pure play exposure picks for the next architectural changes in photonics:
For testing, cw lasers, substrates, and foundries in next paradigm shift in the photonics supercycle.
Companies like $LITE or $AAOI that I’ve longed last year cover multiple cycles.
However, the most returns comes from anticipating what benefits the most Mc wise relative to future revenue/TAM growth (not priced into current earnings).
Not looking back at 2 year historical returns to calculate fair value.
And when we’re looking at massive new photonics TAM ($110B+ bull case from lightcounting), largely driven from architecture that use CW lasers as an example or struggle with yields.
A lot of these companies are likely going to re-rate hard.
Especially when you look at the start of the next architectural changes, happening around H2 2026.
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