KOL发布光通信与先进封装标的长期思考笔记，无短期硬催化剂且部分标的面临严重稀释

So random notes about $JBL, $SMHMD, QD laser, and others that i passed on:

1. $JBL: Very promising at $28B. Would not be surprised if it ended up $45B MC next year. Kinda like western innolight after they bought intel's siph ip.

Fwd p/e roughly ~22x, compresses down to sub 18 2027.

Which is really good given TAM expansion optionality what $COHR is doing? I preferred Coherent for now, but might give this another look. Hard to go wrong with Jabil?

idk, struggling to either just keep concentration in $COHR or split it.

2. IntelliEPI looking into it got interested for inp epitaxial stuff and they got chips act subsidies recently. didn't get enough time yet.

3. $SMHD - i passed last yr bc of toxic financing reasons, when i was looking at glass substrate stuff, but decided to take another look.

q1-$30m convertible notes, so that's dilution overhang, not that bad.
F1 resale: 46.6M new share issuance, with registered up to 95M share resale
So that's roughly $563m off $303m MC?

Like they're probably supplying to $AMAT, Ibiden, Unimicron and these types of customers as a fundamental supplier but not sure if it outweights dilution?

4. Was looking at quantum dot lasers / BTO again vs. ELS and others... Way, way too early like with names like QD laser or $ALMU should prob come back 1 year later.

I did like QD laser more since it's funded/spinoff of Fujitsu, so you probably won't get that dilution nuke that $POET investors with US quantum dot r&D?

That being said there's some interesting names for sure, might just take a stake in one or two quantum names just in case there's a breakthrough.

5. Then looking more into Furukawa and $AVGO relationships out of curiosity. they have massive manufacturing scale eg. ~500% expansion from 2025 capex. So if there's ever a bottleneck for the lasers in 2027-2028 just remember Furukawa, Win semi, and others will benefit.

But i dont think it will be as severe as the EML bottleneck? who knows.

6. Probably will look into Yu