🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04-10 15:37:05时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:38:26回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 08:22:39·132.5 天前
KOL分享光子学CPO投资逻辑并推荐小盘股SIVE
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There's many nuanced architectural changes for "supercycles" in photonics. If you feel like you missed $LITE from last…
不做 LITE.US
KOL清单帖顺带提及，无新底层催化剂，中大盘股不受此类个人逻辑分享影响
不做 JBL.US
KOL清单帖顺带提及，无新底层催化剂
不做 MRVL.US
KOL清单帖顺带提及，无新底层催化剂
不做 SIVE.US
KOL重点吹票的小盘股，无近期硬催化剂，KOL自承时间尚早且有稀释与盈利风险，属纯逻辑推演，防范出货风险
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There's many nuanced architectural changes for "supercycles" in photonics.
If you feel like you missed $LITE from last year, just frontrun the next cycle with CPO / lasers.
$SIVE was my lesser known pick for laser exposure.
They're in $JBL 1.6T LRO, $MRVL via Celestial, O-Net -> Hyperscalers.
Which is extremely abnormal for a ~$350M MC company.
If I had to draw parallels: it's similar to $AAOI 2025 or $AEHR now with current qualification cycles before volume.
Which is why retail misunderstands it when you look at purely financial numbers today with negative eps or capex spend.
And a lot of that execution uncertainty with volume production / capex spend for scaling dfb laser is de-risked from Win Semi.
However, it looks to just keep ramping past 2029+ starting from H2 2026.
Might be a little early... But I think it's a decent read on what's up and coming.
Dilution is a real risk.
But a lot of fears are priced into its ~$350M MC, especially when a company like $AVGO or AlChip can just buy $SIVE for vertical integration or to troll Marvell’s CPO program.
If you feel like you missed $LITE from last year, just frontrun the next cycle with CPO / lasers.
$SIVE was my lesser known pick for laser exposure.
They're in $JBL 1.6T LRO, $MRVL via Celestial, O-Net -> Hyperscalers.
Which is extremely abnormal for a ~$350M MC company.
If I had to draw parallels: it's similar to $AAOI 2025 or $AEHR now with current qualification cycles before volume.
Which is why retail misunderstands it when you look at purely financial numbers today with negative eps or capex spend.
And a lot of that execution uncertainty with volume production / capex spend for scaling dfb laser is de-risked from Win Semi.
However, it looks to just keep ramping past 2029+ starting from H2 2026.
Might be a little early... But I think it's a decent read on what's up and coming.
Dilution is a real risk.
But a lot of fears are priced into its ~$350M MC, especially when a company like $AVGO or AlChip can just buy $SIVE for vertical integration or to troll Marvell’s CPO program.
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