🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘没法做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04-13 23:12:09时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:37:15回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 08:08:30·132.6 天前
KOL看多Sivers Semiconductors估值修复及潜在赴美上市，对比LWLG等同业
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
I actually thought $SIVE should be trading at $2B+ MC today (from ~$520m) if they were listed as a US company. Not late…
不做 SIVE.US
主推标的Sivers Semiconductors实际在瑞典上市(SIVE.ST)或OTC(SIVSF)，并未在美国主流交易所上市(作者原话需等待US listing)，SIVE.US代码无法直接交易且OTC流动性极差，结构上没法做。
不做 LWLG.US
仅在推文中作为估值对比的锚点被提及，无直接看多或看空逻辑，属于纯噪音。
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I actually thought $SIVE should be trading at $2B+ MC today (from ~$520m) if they were listed as a US company.
Not later this year.
Since I’m not sure how:
- $LWLG trades at 3.5x+ the valuation
- packaging companies that buy their lasers trade at 5-6x their valuation.
- laser companies from $MTSI to $LITE have premiums trading in the tens of billions.
And Sivers are in hyperscaler supply chains through $MRVL, $JBL, O-Net, and others rather than being dependent on one customer.
There’s not very many publicly listed AI DC laser companies in the world either.
So either it’s a highly sought after acquisition target for $AVGO or $MRVL that want to vertically integrate upstream.
Or they can pull a $LITE that went from $17->$800 and downstream TAM expansion the ELS/optical transceiver stack through IP acquisitions.
Depends how ambitious the company is of course but i just don’t think anyone noticed this laser supplier in Sweden since my thesis post.
Just might require a little patience for the US listing and I’m almost certain US institutions are interested like they were with $IQE.
DD periods usually last a few weeks after they read my thesis but I see a clear path to $10B+ MC from here over the next few years.
Not later this year.
Since I’m not sure how:
- $LWLG trades at 3.5x+ the valuation
- packaging companies that buy their lasers trade at 5-6x their valuation.
- laser companies from $MTSI to $LITE have premiums trading in the tens of billions.
And Sivers are in hyperscaler supply chains through $MRVL, $JBL, O-Net, and others rather than being dependent on one customer.
There’s not very many publicly listed AI DC laser companies in the world either.
So either it’s a highly sought after acquisition target for $AVGO or $MRVL that want to vertically integrate upstream.
Or they can pull a $LITE that went from $17->$800 and downstream TAM expansion the ELS/optical transceiver stack through IP acquisitions.
Depends how ambitious the company is of course but i just don’t think anyone noticed this laser supplier in Sweden since my thesis post.
Just might require a little patience for the US listing and I’m almost certain US institutions are interested like they were with $IQE.
DD periods usually last a few weeks after they read my thesis but I see a clear path to $10B+ MC from here over the next few years.
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