🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:日股把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04-14 12:17:42时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:37:09回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 08:03:37·132.7 天前
KOL挖掘InP衬底上游瓶颈Nippon Chemical(4092.T)，指AXTI.US依赖其高纯红磷
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
A Guide by Serenity: How to Cripple the Western Hyperscaler buildout with just $170m. Just take over Nippon Chemical (4…
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +5%、2 个交易日内有效
怎么卖 止盈 +15%(半仓)/+30%(清仓) · 止损 -8% · 时间止损 5日
失效/反转 公司澄清未向AXTI等供应高纯红磷 / 产能占比数据被证伪 / 3日内无日文一手源跟进
不做 AXTI.US
文章将其作为已充分定价的标杆，且暴露其对NCI的上游依赖风险，无新增上行催化，已price-in。
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成交明细
该臂暂无收益数据(没有收益口径表头)。
研究档案
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原文全文
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A Guide by Serenity:
How to Cripple the Western Hyperscaler buildout with just $170m.
Just take over Nippon Chemical (4092) with $169m!
For InP substrates, you need: Indium and High Purity Phosphorus.
Thought $AXTI was a bottleneck? NCI is the bottleneck of the bottleneck.
NCI is actually the leader of the high purity red phosphorus chokepoint holding 26-27% of the market share (Rasa has less share, then the rest is China).
And they export to $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX that need it to make InP substrates.
So… if you have $160m to spend to acquire NCI (plus Rasa as smaller capacity), you can remove the leading Western world’s production of 6N/7N red phosphorus needed to make InP substrates!
And without InP substrates: no photonics.
Fun fact: China’s tech companies would get pretty disrupted with it too by NCI.
For $AXTI, the mapping/reliance is actually pretty interesting:
- AXT's Tongmei outlined its structural reliance on importing high-purity precursor materials from Japan on their STAR Market listing
- WITS data showing ~$460/kg high-purity phosphorus flowing from Japan into China
So they secretly do depend on NCI.
China does have capacity like Wylton Chemical, Qin Xi New Materials, Jinding Electronics, and Chuxiong Chuanzhi, Guizhou Wylton Jinglin Electronic Materials as well.
However, they’re all smaller players so can’t make up for high purity red phosphorus capacity provided by NCI for InP substrate production at scale.
$LITE CEO already said inp substrates keeps him up at night.
So now with NCI, you can give the guy permanent insomnia?
For just $169M.
So here's what the supply chain looks like:
-> DGC phosphate rock mine and ships it to NCI
-> NCI refines Yellow Phosphorus into High Purity Red Phosphorus
-> Sumitomo / JX / AXT melt the Red Phosphorus with Indium to grow InP Substrates
-> $COHR / $LITE fab InP substrates into Lasers
-> Innolight/Fabrinet package them into 800G/1.6T transceivers
-> $NVDA / $GOOGL use them for ASIC/GPU
How to Cripple the Western Hyperscaler buildout with just $170m.
Just take over Nippon Chemical (4092) with $169m!
For InP substrates, you need: Indium and High Purity Phosphorus.
Thought $AXTI was a bottleneck? NCI is the bottleneck of the bottleneck.
NCI is actually the leader of the high purity red phosphorus chokepoint holding 26-27% of the market share (Rasa has less share, then the rest is China).
And they export to $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX that need it to make InP substrates.
So… if you have $160m to spend to acquire NCI (plus Rasa as smaller capacity), you can remove the leading Western world’s production of 6N/7N red phosphorus needed to make InP substrates!
And without InP substrates: no photonics.
Fun fact: China’s tech companies would get pretty disrupted with it too by NCI.
For $AXTI, the mapping/reliance is actually pretty interesting:
- AXT's Tongmei outlined its structural reliance on importing high-purity precursor materials from Japan on their STAR Market listing
- WITS data showing ~$460/kg high-purity phosphorus flowing from Japan into China
So they secretly do depend on NCI.
China does have capacity like Wylton Chemical, Qin Xi New Materials, Jinding Electronics, and Chuxiong Chuanzhi, Guizhou Wylton Jinglin Electronic Materials as well.
However, they’re all smaller players so can’t make up for high purity red phosphorus capacity provided by NCI for InP substrate production at scale.
$LITE CEO already said inp substrates keeps him up at night.
So now with NCI, you can give the guy permanent insomnia?
For just $169M.
So here's what the supply chain looks like:
-> DGC phosphate rock mine and ships it to NCI
-> NCI refines Yellow Phosphorus into High Purity Red Phosphorus
-> Sumitomo / JX / AXT melt the Red Phosphorus with Indium to grow InP Substrates
-> $COHR / $LITE fab InP substrates into Lasers
-> Innolight/Fabrinet package them into 800G/1.6T transceivers
-> $NVDA / $GOOGL use them for ASIC/GPU
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