🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04-15 10:23:07时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:36:55回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 07:48:27·132.7 天前
KOL分享NVDA CPO生态投资笔记，认为HIMX短期有空间但长期将被替代且机会成本高
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
So just a random thought for $NVDA CPO ecosystem.. Was thinking about going long on VisEra as TSM's optical foundry but…
不做 HIMX.US
KOL主观投资笔记，无新底层催化剂；KOL自身认为长期会被design out且资金效率低(dead money)，缺乏实质性交易价值
不做 NVDA.US
仅作为CPO生态背景提及，无直接催化
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
这条决策没有研究档案。
原文全文
展开原文 · 670 字
So just a random thought for $NVDA CPO ecosystem..
Was thinking about going long on VisEra as TSM's optical foundry but it's H2 2028 volume ramp for gen3...
Ended up scratching that off my list.
I didn't like $HIMX cause it's just going to get designed out later.
At $4B valuation, it will probably get down to like 14-16 fwd P/E for 2028. But it's probably going to be dead money for at least an entire year.
Maybe +50% next few months since it's extremely de-risked by $TSM.
If you want to hold it, probably 4x in 2 year timeframe, but that's too boring of a trade for me.
Not worth the opportunity cost IMO, even if you buy it at $6-8B valuation h2 2027.
Was thinking about going long on VisEra as TSM's optical foundry but it's H2 2028 volume ramp for gen3...
Ended up scratching that off my list.
I didn't like $HIMX cause it's just going to get designed out later.
At $4B valuation, it will probably get down to like 14-16 fwd P/E for 2028. But it's probably going to be dead money for at least an entire year.
Maybe +50% next few months since it's extremely de-risked by $TSM.
If you want to hold it, probably 4x in 2 year timeframe, but that's too boring of a trade for me.
Not worth the opportunity cost IMO, even if you buy it at $6-8B valuation h2 2027.
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。