KOL Serenity 认为 LITE/AXTI/AAOI 等光子学标的短期涨幅过大，预计将区间震荡

So my opinion on current markets and thoughts:

Lot of photonics stuff ran up too much like $LITE, $AXTI, $AAOI, and others. eg. $AAOI $40 -> $150.

Probably going to see some range-bound chopping for awhile until next earnings?

While a lot of the newer CPO ecosystem names like ASE, Sivers, etc, have a lot of re-rating to do.

Stuff like $AEHR more priced in after the 100% rally, probably better not to take short term capital gains imo... I can see it chopping a tiny bit too. But hint was volume orders shortly after. So maybe if you wait a month, volume order hits, then stock goes up another 30% is my guess?

There's some nuance like $SMTC for LPO/LRO transitions, but it's really complicated as a briedge.

Software obviously got sold off too much. I was questioning why $META, $MSFT were sold off 20% after macro, even more with $RDDT.

Even though Meta was doing 36% or so revenue growth Y/Y, which is stupidly insane. And reddit was doing 1/3 net income of revenue that grew 70% Y/Y.

I think AI is accelerates revenue for some software names actually, esp. social media.

But there's obvious companies that get disrupted over time as seen with Chegg from both vibe coded competitors as well as just direct to AI from ChatGPT/Gemini.

As for Crypto, got sold off too much. I'm always bullish Ethereum 1.5-2K, and bearish at 3-4k. Don't ask me why but it just repeats like this for the past 6 years.

I like Bitcoin, and some protocols that actually generate revenue like hyperliquid.

$CRCL is extreme nuanced. Clarity act is a nuke on yields, and I can't project how that would affect circulating supply yet.

Rate cuts projections dropped to 0 as highest probability. Which is heavily bullish circle, but if yields get banned, idk if stablecoin derivative liqudity flows into USDC supply or if liquidity just gets nuked if people just convert stablecoins to just banks instead.

I don't have the answer.

Stuff that I said early H1, like $MRVL, $NBIS being accelerated l