🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:美股把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04-16 06:31:11时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:36:30回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 07:38:33·132.5 天前
KOL看多HIMS：称NVO诉讼撤销及多肽业务扩张将催化逼空
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
This announcement is the most bullish catalyst for $HIMS revenue re-acceleration to date. This is amid: - 30%+ of the f…
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +8%、2 个交易日内有效
怎么卖 止盈 +15%(半仓)/+30%(清仓) · 止损 -8% · 时间止损 5日
失效/反转 公司澄清未与NVO达成和解或诉讼未撤销 / 官方公告未证实多肽业务扩张
不做 NVO.US
仅为HIMS看多逻辑的背景板，非直接催化剂，且NVO市值巨大，对单一仿制药竞争边际变化不敏感
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原文全文
展开原文 · 1,282 字
This announcement is the most bullish catalyst for $HIMS revenue re-acceleration to date.
This is amid:
- 30%+ of the float sold short
- new $NVO partnership/lawsuit dropped
- new global acquisitions
- recovering macro climate.
The share price is still $25, down from $70 last year.
Short sellers are likely in trouble:
$HIMS can capture market share at the ~70%-80% gross margins typical of their compounded products for the holy grail of the "Grey Market" TAM for peptides.
- EG. Healing: BPC-157 and Thymosin beta-4
- Hair & Skin: GHK-Cu
- Weight Loss & Muscle: MOTS-c and Ibutamoren
And now they're probably the world's largest independent DTC distribution network to date from their new acquisitions...
So just running a peptide protocol subscription between $150 to $300, for 200k subscribers is $360M+ in high-margin ARR.
As just one example, but now they have a worldwide net of customers.
They burned through capex last year to acquire peptide manufacturing facilities too... so now that's turned into a massive cash-cow business.
I said $HIMS would need fundamental changes in order to force shorts to cover, and this is probably that signal as seen with market data.
And $HIMS is turning into a fundamentally sound company after regulatory de-risking.
This is amid:
- 30%+ of the float sold short
- new $NVO partnership/lawsuit dropped
- new global acquisitions
- recovering macro climate.
The share price is still $25, down from $70 last year.
Short sellers are likely in trouble:
$HIMS can capture market share at the ~70%-80% gross margins typical of their compounded products for the holy grail of the "Grey Market" TAM for peptides.
- EG. Healing: BPC-157 and Thymosin beta-4
- Hair & Skin: GHK-Cu
- Weight Loss & Muscle: MOTS-c and Ibutamoren
And now they're probably the world's largest independent DTC distribution network to date from their new acquisitions...
So just running a peptide protocol subscription between $150 to $300, for 200k subscribers is $360M+ in high-margin ARR.
As just one example, but now they have a worldwide net of customers.
They burned through capex last year to acquire peptide manufacturing facilities too... so now that's turned into a massive cash-cow business.
I said $HIMS would need fundamental changes in order to force shorts to cover, and this is probably that signal as seen with market data.
And $HIMS is turning into a fundamentally sound company after regulatory de-risking.
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