🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:台股把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04-19 02:10:59时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:35:33回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 07:15:38·132.5 天前
KOL总结半导体财报与涨价趋势，点名做多台湾OSAT(矽格)及晶圆代工(联电)涨价
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
Just some TLDRs to save you time: 1. $ASML, $TSM earnings = Good Outlook. Semis + capex go brrr. 2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropi…
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +3%、仅下一个交易日，不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +5%(半仓)/+10%(清仓) · 止损 -4% · 时间止损 3日
失效/反转 公司否认涨价或涨价幅度不及预期
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +4%、仅下一个交易日，不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +8%(半仓)/+15%(清仓) · 止损 -5% · 时间止损 5日
失效/反转 OSAT产能扩张超预期导致价格战 / KOL删帖或澄清未持仓
不做 ASML.US
大盘股财报利好属行业确认，无超额edge，且周末已发酵，周一开盘大概率price-in
不做 TSM.US
同ASML，大盘股财报确认，无超额edge
不做 TSLA.US
三星代工特斯拉AI芯片对特斯拉自身业绩无实质弹性，属供应链新闻
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成交明细
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研究档案
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原文全文
展开原文 · 780 字
Just some TLDRs to save you time:
1. $ASML, $TSM earnings = Good Outlook. Semis + capex go brrr.
2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic go brrr. Software = sad.
3. Samsung go brrr because of partly bc of $TSLA AI Chips.
4. $UMC = price hike for foundry. foundries go brrr.
5. Training = brrr in China. H100 rental increase go up. Neoclouds happy.
6. Helium supply shortage = not significant... I've already said this before, but I'm not sure how many times $TSM needs to say this.
7. MLCC, inductor prices = price hike. Will cover beneficiaries later.
8. "Taiwan's OSAT expansion could tighten global test capacity and raise costs"
I went long on Taiwan OSATs recently like Shunsin (6451) for a reason. Demand will just outstrip supply, even after expansion. (cowos, sip, optical).
1. $ASML, $TSM earnings = Good Outlook. Semis + capex go brrr.
2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic go brrr. Software = sad.
3. Samsung go brrr because of partly bc of $TSLA AI Chips.
4. $UMC = price hike for foundry. foundries go brrr.
5. Training = brrr in China. H100 rental increase go up. Neoclouds happy.
6. Helium supply shortage = not significant... I've already said this before, but I'm not sure how many times $TSM needs to say this.
7. MLCC, inductor prices = price hike. Will cover beneficiaries later.
8. "Taiwan's OSAT expansion could tighten global test capacity and raise costs"
I went long on Taiwan OSATs recently like Shunsin (6451) for a reason. Demand will just outstrip supply, even after expansion. (cowos, sip, optical).
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