🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04-20 07:11:51时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:35:23回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 07:14:42·132.7 天前
KOL发布1.6T/CPO光子学供应链投资清单
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me. I have high conv…
不做 MRVL.US
KOL清单帖无新催化剂，CPO与定制ASIC逻辑已明牌且充分定价，大盘股对喊单不敏感，防范出货风险
不做 JBL.US
底层光子学封装逻辑已price-in，KOL清单帖缺乏增量信息，迟到的清单有出货嫌疑
不做 SIVE.US
小市值OTC标的流动性差且代码存疑，KOL点名疑似pump，风险收益比不佳
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Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me.
I have high conviction in that statement.
Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK)
1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net.
And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures.
Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others.
There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC.
2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG.
When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume.
$TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year.
They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand.
3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others.
When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see.
There's probably something markets are not pricing in.
4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm.
Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028.
But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029.
Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP?
5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodit
I have high conviction in that statement.
Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK)
1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL, $MRVL, Ayar, O-Net.
And I do think CPO/1.6T will blow away any conservative analyst projections from how hard $NVDA, $GOOGL, and others have been pushing photonics architectures.
Downside risk is multi-sourcing, but there's a reason Jabil chose Sivers. When you compare $MTSI, $LITE, $COHR, Furukawa, and others.
There's genuinely not many laser suppliers in the entire world... they're all $10B+, then you have this mini CHIPS act chokepoint trading at <$1B MC.
2. Shunsin (6451) - I don't see how it's possible Foxconn's optical foundry for testing, packaging, and assembly is valued at $1.5B MC less than $LWLG.
When they look extremely derisked piggybacking off of Foxconn's photonics volume.
$TSM's optical arm VisEra example is ~$5B, but they scale H2 2028 from Gen-3. Foxconn looks to be ramping up just next year.
They're just scaling low fwd p/e multiples off of $NVDA CPO supply chain demand in Taiwan and all public indicators point to capacity expansion + extreme demand.
3. Win Semi - They're the foundry for Sivers to scale up DFB laser production. As well as $AVGO, SpaceX supply chains and others.
When I do supply chain mapping and Win Semi pops up in every single frontier supply chain I see.
There's probably something markets are not pricing in.
4. $MRVL - I find this genuinely compelling as a mini-Broadcomm.
Their potential design with with $GOOGL today, helps the case past 2028.
But the catalyst I was looking at was $MSFT Maia ramp, which happens H2 2026, and likely keep scaling up exponentially into 2027, 2028, 2029.
Celestial acquisition was probably the smartest thing in the world for them. Maybe on next drop or CSP?
5. $HPS.A - Transformers/Switchgears are commodit
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