🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:美股把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04-20 13:17:21时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:35:18回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 07:14:14·132.4 天前
Blue Origin发射失败致ASTS卫星组网延迟，RKLB作为发射同行情绪受益
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
Space sector with $ASTS looks like it’s having fun. Lot of optimism on X somehow, even after Blue Origin had a major fa…
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +5%、仅下一个交易日，不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +8%(半仓)/+15%(清仓) · 止损 -5% · 时间止损 3日
失效/反转 Blue Origin澄清未发生重大失败，或发射市场未出现订单转移迹象
不做 ASTS.US
Blue Origin发射延迟对ASTS组网和收入确认为实质利空，但ASTS散户抱团属性强、波动极大，做空易被轧空，无底仓回避。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
成交明细
该臂暂无收益数据(没有收益口径表头)。
研究档案
这条决策没有研究档案。
原文全文
展开原文 · 905 字
Space sector with $ASTS looks like it’s having fun.
Lot of optimism on X somehow, even after Blue Origin had a major failure... (positive for SpaceX and byproduct $RKLB.)
As for $ASTS it does matter for future revenue recognition, when they dont have satellites in space.
Blue Origin launches probably got delayed a ton of months, maybe like ~4-7M?
If a company that is priced primarily by forward growth gets delayed.
Then it's not just one satellite, but the subsequent ones ones as well... this hurts forward earnings growth a lot (since it doesn’t look like they hit 45 targets)
After months of investigation Blue Origin will likely be backlogged from $AMZN Kuiper and DoD payloads too.
Seems like in a pretty bad spot being dependent on their competitor SpaceX.
Definitely not "immaterial" as others were claiming with their squiggly line charts, but no comment about buying opportunity.
Lot of optimism on X somehow, even after Blue Origin had a major failure... (positive for SpaceX and byproduct $RKLB.)
As for $ASTS it does matter for future revenue recognition, when they dont have satellites in space.
Blue Origin launches probably got delayed a ton of months, maybe like ~4-7M?
If a company that is priced primarily by forward growth gets delayed.
Then it's not just one satellite, but the subsequent ones ones as well... this hurts forward earnings growth a lot (since it doesn’t look like they hit 45 targets)
After months of investigation Blue Origin will likely be backlogged from $AMZN Kuiper and DoD payloads too.
Seems like in a pretty bad spot being dependent on their competitor SpaceX.
Definitely not "immaterial" as others were claiming with their squiggly line charts, but no comment about buying opportunity.
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。