🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04-23 15:03:29时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 20:33:06回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 06:45:30·132.8 天前
KOL长文推演Sivers(SIVE)在CPO产业链的潜在供应关系
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC. Markets don't understand what's com…
不做 SIVE.US
典型社媒KOL长文画大饼喊单，推演链条过长且充满猜测(likely/possible)，无实锤订单或官方公告支撑；核心标的在美股多为OTC或小盘股，流动性差，存在炒作或出货风险。
不做 POET.US
作为SIVE产业链一环被KOL提及，无独立新催化剂，小盘股受社媒情绪影响大，基本面推演未证实。
不做 MRVL.US
光互连龙头大盘股，KOL推测其可能采购POET/SIVE产品属于远期猜测，对当前基本面和股价无实质影响。
不做 AMZN.US
超大市值云厂商，不受此级别小供应链推测影响，无交易价值。
不做 MSFT.US
超大市值云厂商，不受此级别小供应链推测影响，无交易价值。
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原文全文
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All the hyperscalers $SIVE likely ends up in 2027-2028 is staggering at a $900m MC.
Markets don't understand what's coming.
From speculative mapping:
> $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL ->
1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial)
2. $MSFT (maia)
3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell)
$SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago.
> $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers"
1. Western Hyperscalers
> $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)->
1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program)
2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers
$SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers.
> $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) ->
1. Alchip (Joint CPO)
2. Intel
3. GUC/Wiwynn
-> $AMZN (Alchip)
-> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible.
$SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier.
As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar.
> $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers
1. $AVGO ELS (possible)
2. $META and $GOOGL ELS
3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS
4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS
5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS
$SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC.
Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations.
It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of.
Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward.
$SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the ma
Markets don't understand what's coming.
From speculative mapping:
> $SIVE -> $POET -> $MRVL ->
1. $AMZN (purchase agreement/warrants with photonic fabric from celestial)
2. $MSFT (maia)
3. $GOOGL (recent development talks with Marvell)
$SIVE powers Poet Starlight/optical interposers, and Poet's CFO confirmed they're supplying to Marvell few days ago.
> $SIVE -> $POET -> "NDAs other hyperscaler suppliers"
1. Western Hyperscalers
> $SIVE -> $JBL (1.6T LRO)->
1. $META (Jabil $INTC SiPH inheritance, maps to Meta LRO program)
2. $NVDA (NVIDIA possibly OEMs optical transceivers) -> $MSFT | AWS | hyperscalers
$SIVE is the confirmed laser source for $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers.
> $SIVE -> Ayar ($500m fundraiser last month for volume ramp) ->
1. Alchip (Joint CPO)
2. Intel
3. GUC/Wiwynn
-> $AMZN (Alchip)
-> $AMD (CPO from $GFS partnership) possible.
$SIVE is known laser supplier to Ayar, and Ayar removed $MTSI / $LITE from their website recently. Only showing $GFS + $SIVE, likely showing Sivers was primary laser supplier.
As $GFS x $AMD partnered up recently, that makes Siver a possible core laser supplier for $AMD's CPO program if they go with Ayar.
> $SIVE -> Enablence -> O-Net (massive Asian OEM)-> Asian Hyperscalers
1. $AVGO ELS (possible)
2. $META and $GOOGL ELS
3. ByteDance (possible) -> ELS
4. Tencent (possible) -> ELS
5. Alibaba (possible) -> ELS
$SIVE ELS partnership with O-Net/Enablence around OFC.
Sivers lasers is mass produced by foundries like Win Semi... and they're validated in $GFS CPO supply chains too from their recent image presentations.
It's not about what Sivers is forecasting today from qualification revenue that everyone models off of.
Alpha comes from future revenue proportional to demand from every Western/Asian hyperscaler for CPO/1.6T in 2027, 2028, 2029, and onward.
$SIVE looks like one of the most unknown photonic stocks on the ma
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