🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘没法做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04-28 15:45:54时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 19:00:13回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 06:07:36·132.4 天前
KOL 推断 AI 算力 CPO 激光器产能分配，看好 Sivers (SIVE) 获溢出订单
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research! A stronger international shareholder ba…
不做 SIVE.US
Sivers Semiconductors 为瑞典上市公司(SIVE.ST)或美股OTC(SIVSF)，SIVE.US 非美股主板标准代码，流动性与可交易性存疑；且核心逻辑为 KOL 基于网站变更和幻灯片推断的未证实订单传闻，缺乏一手公告确认。
不做 LITE.US
KOL 帖子仅作为推导 SIVE 的背景提及 NVDA 买断 LITE 产能，无新催化剂，且产能满载预期大概率已充分定价，大市值标的无 edge。
不做 GFS.US
帖子提及 AMD CPO 选择 GFS，但 CPO 业务占 GFS 整体晶圆代工营收比例极小，不足以构成大市值公司的有效催化剂，无 edge。
不做 NVDA.US
仅作为产业链背景提及，无新催化剂，超大市值标的对单一激光器供应商分配传闻不敏感。
不做 AMD.US
仅作为产业链背景提及，无新催化剂，CPO 进展对 AMD 整体估值影响有限。
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I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research!
A stronger international shareholder base is always positive.
As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like:
1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR
2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation.
3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless.
$SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers.
So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial.
Just some interesting things to back that up:
-> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others.
-> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program.
-> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling.
$NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow.
Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028.
I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like.
As for why I think it's a good long:
-> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations.
-> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations
-> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA
But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027.
Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices.
Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA.
Many many years of development, finally coming
A stronger international shareholder base is always positive.
As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like:
1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR
2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation.
3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless.
$SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers.
So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial.
Just some interesting things to back that up:
-> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others.
-> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program.
-> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling.
$NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow.
Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028.
I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like.
As for why I think it's a good long:
-> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations.
-> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations
-> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA
But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027.
Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices.
Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA.
Many many years of development, finally coming
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