🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:美股把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 04-30 08:25:10时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 19:00:02回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 05:42:30·132.7 天前
KOL喊单TOWA(6315)为HBM4封装设备潜在受益者，博弈5月11日财报
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
Yeah... the more I look into things, $TOWA / $TOWCF (6315) at ~$1.34b looks like a sleeper beneficiary for HBM4 spend f…
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑KOL喊单HBM4封装设备逻辑成立，但OTC流动性差且HBM设备逻辑已非全新，小仓限价博弈财报
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +5%、2 个交易日内有效
怎么卖 止盈 +10%(半仓)/+20%(清仓) · 止损 -8% · 时间止损 8日
失效/反转 5月11日财报不及预期 / HBM4 capex指引下调 / 公司否认HBM4订单增量
不做 TOWA.US
代码错误，正股为日股6315.T，美股无此主板代码
不做 MU.US
仅为HBM行业背景提及，非本事件主推标的，无独立催化剂
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
成交明细
该臂暂无收益数据(没有收益口径表头)。
研究档案
这条决策没有研究档案。
原文全文
展开原文 · 951 字
Yeah... the more I look into things, $TOWA / $TOWCF (6315) at ~$1.34b looks like a sleeper beneficiary for HBM4 spend from SK Hynix, Samsung, $MU.
It’s hyper cyclical with spending cycles.
But we’re seeing hikes in capex spend across the board from memory makers.
Not exactly a 4x type play...
But my guess is that it should get materially re-rated from a spike in unavoidable inflows for the start of the new HBM4 memory cycle anyway.
And they appear to be a largely forgotten beneficiary for this new cycle despite their monopoly in compression modeling processes.
Hybrid bonding just removes one step in the process but requires Towa anyway (monopolies tend to get higher premiums)
I also don't think this cycle is like the last due to how much memory companies have been printing recently?
Just my thoughts, but if my guess is right... it should show up in earnings on the Monday 11th (Tokyo Time) as everyone’s building out HBM4 lines?
It’s hyper cyclical with spending cycles.
But we’re seeing hikes in capex spend across the board from memory makers.
Not exactly a 4x type play...
But my guess is that it should get materially re-rated from a spike in unavoidable inflows for the start of the new HBM4 memory cycle anyway.
And they appear to be a largely forgotten beneficiary for this new cycle despite their monopoly in compression modeling processes.
Hybrid bonding just removes one step in the process but requires Towa anyway (monopolies tend to get higher premiums)
I also don't think this cycle is like the last due to how much memory companies have been printing recently?
Just my thoughts, but if my guess is right... it should show up in earnings on the Monday 11th (Tokyo Time) as everyone’s building out HBM4 lines?
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