🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 05-07 16:45:41时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 18:59:41回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 04:20:28·132.6 天前
KOL发文看好玻璃基板设备商LPKF及产业链(INTC/GLW)，但LPK已大涨80%且代码存疑
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
$LPK up 80% in the last two weeks. Not too shabby at ~$687M MC? It's probably one of the cleaner ways to play the next…
不做 LPK.US
代码疑为LPKFY.US或LPK.DE，LPK.US无法交易；且标的过去两周已涨80%，KOL顺势喊单，追高风险极大
不做 INTC.US
玻璃基板为长期已知逻辑，无新催化剂；INTC市值巨大，该业务弹性极小；KOL清单帖滞后，已充分定价
不做 GLW.US
玻璃基板材料端旧闻，无新催化剂；KOL清单帖滞后，已充分定价
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
这条决策没有研究档案。
原文全文
展开原文 · 551 字
$LPK up 80% in the last two weeks. Not too shabby at ~$687M MC?
It's probably one of the cleaner ways to play the next Glass Substrate supercycle.
50-100 machines per customer at scale, with "start of 2027 as mass production" across likely $INTC, $GLW, SKC, and others (since they captured ~80% of the major players).
Maybe ~€2M average per machine.
€400M–€1B+ across just 5 players in 2027 (could be more)? Since they basically supply to everyone as a chokepoint. Off ~67.6% blended gross margins.
Seems promising for volume ramp wait time.
It's probably one of the cleaner ways to play the next Glass Substrate supercycle.
50-100 machines per customer at scale, with "start of 2027 as mass production" across likely $INTC, $GLW, SKC, and others (since they captured ~80% of the major players).
Maybe ~€2M average per machine.
€400M–€1B+ across just 5 players in 2027 (could be more)? Since they basically supply to everyone as a chokepoint. Off ~67.6% blended gross margins.
Seems promising for volume ramp wait time.
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。