🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:日股把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 05-12 05:14:48时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 18:48:53回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 03:26:40·132.5 天前
KOL深度解读Towa(6315)财报：短期受算法错杀，H2利润率与订单迎拐点
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
For Towa (6315): Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my ba…
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
怎么买 回调买入 触发价异常（0）→ 该腿不可执行、2 个交易日内有效
怎么卖 止盈 +10%(半仓)/+20%(清仓) · 止损 -8% · 时间止损 10日
失效/反转 公司下调全年指引 / H2 订单未如期加速 / 利润率拐点被证伪
不做 MU.US
仅为Towa产业链背景提及(前端晶圆厂在建)，无增量催化剂，HBM逻辑已充分定价
不做 000660.KS
仅为Towa产业链背景提及(前端晶圆厂在建)，无增量催化剂，HBM逻辑已充分定价
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
成交明细
该臂暂无收益数据(没有收益口径表头)。
研究档案
这条决策没有研究档案。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,999 字
For Towa (6315):
Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my bad.
But it's an amazing structural long and setup for H2 2026 rather than H1.
TLDR: Near term bearish algorithmically since they miss the nuance, very positive H2 (markets are forward looking)
Revenue ¥54.36B (+1.7% YoY),
Net Profit at ¥4.59B (-43.4% YoY).
Operating Profit ¥6.91B (-22.1% YoY)
News headlines say "EPS crashed -43.4%" or "order miss" that might trigger an algorithmic selloff.
1. As you've seen with US Towa trading, "EPS crashing -43.4%", and algos might have sold headlines.
-> But this was due to last year, of one-off "compensation for damage" payout and one-time ¥1.3 billion yen stock sales from last year.
-> Also "increased initial costs for new customers in compression equipment." for new equipment is caused profitability losses this quarter.
So a bit of an accounting mirage, not really any profitability issues + scaling new orders, so one-off.
However:
Margin inflection point is already here. Which is the biggest signal.
Full year operating margin was 12.7%. For the annual average to reach 12.7% when Q1-Q3 was hovering around ~10%, Q4 should have been around ~18.4% or something?
Which is extremely bullish moving forward for profitability, and shows HBM compression machines are doing work, compared to legacy equipment.
2. Order book "miss":
"Acceleration expected during the second half of fiscal year 3/27 as front-end process production capacity expands."
This signals $MU, Sk Hynix, and others don't have the floor space ready yet, since they're still building front-end wafer fab lines.
But H2, is setup for massive beat. Demand visibility is there... just revenue/profit ramp deferred to H2.
_
Towa forward guidance forcasted ¥64.0B in Sales (+17.7% YoY) and ¥10.24B in Operating Profit (+48.0% YoY), which signals all time high profitability in the future.
IMO they also sandbagged revenue guidance, since
Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my bad.
But it's an amazing structural long and setup for H2 2026 rather than H1.
TLDR: Near term bearish algorithmically since they miss the nuance, very positive H2 (markets are forward looking)
Revenue ¥54.36B (+1.7% YoY),
Net Profit at ¥4.59B (-43.4% YoY).
Operating Profit ¥6.91B (-22.1% YoY)
News headlines say "EPS crashed -43.4%" or "order miss" that might trigger an algorithmic selloff.
1. As you've seen with US Towa trading, "EPS crashing -43.4%", and algos might have sold headlines.
-> But this was due to last year, of one-off "compensation for damage" payout and one-time ¥1.3 billion yen stock sales from last year.
-> Also "increased initial costs for new customers in compression equipment." for new equipment is caused profitability losses this quarter.
So a bit of an accounting mirage, not really any profitability issues + scaling new orders, so one-off.
However:
Margin inflection point is already here. Which is the biggest signal.
Full year operating margin was 12.7%. For the annual average to reach 12.7% when Q1-Q3 was hovering around ~10%, Q4 should have been around ~18.4% or something?
Which is extremely bullish moving forward for profitability, and shows HBM compression machines are doing work, compared to legacy equipment.
2. Order book "miss":
"Acceleration expected during the second half of fiscal year 3/27 as front-end process production capacity expands."
This signals $MU, Sk Hynix, and others don't have the floor space ready yet, since they're still building front-end wafer fab lines.
But H2, is setup for massive beat. Demand visibility is there... just revenue/profit ramp deferred to H2.
_
Towa forward guidance forcasted ¥64.0B in Sales (+17.7% YoY) and ¥10.24B in Operating Profit (+48.0% YoY), which signals all time high profitability in the future.
IMO they also sandbagged revenue guidance, since
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。