🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:台股把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 05-14 18:17:44时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 18:23:43回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 02:40:26·132.7 天前
Sivers 2025年报分析：CPO与CW激光器产能锁定，TAM扩展至可插拔光收发器
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
$SIVE 2025 annual report analysis. TLDR: Extremely Bullish. Sivers main growth vector is CPO, but they've TAM expansion…
不做 SIVE.US
Sivers Semiconductor 未在美股主板上市，SIVE.US 代码无效或为流动性极差的 OTC (SIVEY)，点差巨大且无法执行有效止损，建议转至瑞典市场 SIVE.ST 评估
决策后走势暂无图(这条腿还没有复盘打分的日线切片)
怎么买 限价买入 不高于消息价 +3%、2 个交易日内有效
怎么卖 止盈 +8%(半仓)/+15%(清仓) · 止损 -5% · 时间止损 5日
失效/反转 Sivers 否认与 Win Semi 的产能锁定 / CW 激光器短缺被证伪
观望 AEVA.US
Q4 量产为远期利好，当前无直接短期催化剂，等待后续订单确认
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
成交明细
该臂暂无收益数据(没有收益口径表头)。
研究档案
这条决策没有研究档案。
原文全文
展开原文 · 2,000 字
$SIVE 2025 annual report analysis.
TLDR: Extremely Bullish.
Sivers main growth vector is CPO, but they've TAM expansioned to pluggable transcivers + multiple new qualifications/development.
1. "We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers"
For pluggable angle, we've seen this with $JBL 1.6T LRO already, but annual report hinted they're developing/qualifying with more hyperscaler suppliers.
"Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged" (TAM expansion)
2. "Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years"
$LITE already signaled CW laser bottlenecks, and they had to buy externally from competitors. So we kinda guessed CW Laser was a bottleneck.
And this confirmed it, so was wondering about Win semi.
"The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand"
$SIVE likely has capacity locked in with Win from this nuance, which is exactly what I wanted to know.
This positions Sivers in the CW laser as both a bottleneck and CPO laser architectural leader.
VOLUME PRODUCTION H2 INDICATIONS (BULLISH):
3. "The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026"
H1 is more preproduction, H2 production signaled starting with names like $POET.
4. "We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026"
$AEVA start of volume production Q4 with $SIVE = bullish for both.
Revenue floor from LIDAR as their CPO scales.
5. Sivers announced a partnership with LIGHTIUM AG to integ
TLDR: Extremely Bullish.
Sivers main growth vector is CPO, but they've TAM expansioned to pluggable transcivers + multiple new qualifications/development.
1. "We are currently seeing great interest... testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers"
For pluggable angle, we've seen this with $JBL 1.6T LRO already, but annual report hinted they're developing/qualifying with more hyperscaler suppliers.
"Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged" (TAM expansion)
2. "Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years"
$LITE already signaled CW laser bottlenecks, and they had to buy externally from competitors. So we kinda guessed CW Laser was a bottleneck.
And this confirmed it, so was wondering about Win semi.
"The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand"
$SIVE likely has capacity locked in with Win from this nuance, which is exactly what I wanted to know.
This positions Sivers in the CW laser as both a bottleneck and CPO laser architectural leader.
VOLUME PRODUCTION H2 INDICATIONS (BULLISH):
3. "The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026"
H1 is more preproduction, H2 production signaled starting with names like $POET.
4. "We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026"
$AEVA start of volume production Q4 with $SIVE = bullish for both.
Revenue floor from LIDAR as their CPO scales.
5. Sivers announced a partnership with LIGHTIUM AG to integ
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。