🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 05-17 09:28:37时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 18:59:21回填·⚡ 决策 06-17 02:03:43·132.8 天前
KOL长文梳理光子学与玻璃基板逻辑并喊单SIVE、LPK等小盘股
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When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors: I immediately think they lack the technical…
不做 SIVE.US
KOL长文喊单已知产业逻辑（光子学CW激光器），无突发新催化剂；标的为小盘股，且代码疑似归一化错误（Sivers应为SIVE.ST），流动性差，存在Pump and Dump风险，无交易Edge。
不做 LPK.US
KOL喊单玻璃基板设备逻辑，无新催化剂；标的代码疑似归一化错误（LPKF应为LPKF.DE或LPKFY），小盘股流动性差，防范KOL出货风险，不做。
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When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors:
I immediately think they lack the technical depth.
I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK:
1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice.
It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028.
$SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2...
For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD.
This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics.
And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE.
The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there).
As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation.
It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable.
Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level.
And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B.
2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates.
Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates.
$LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently.
Yes, there's "trade c
I immediately think they lack the technical depth.
I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK:
1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice.
It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028.
$SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2...
For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD.
This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics.
And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE.
The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there).
As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation.
It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable.
Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level.
And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B.
2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates.
Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates.
$LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently.
Yes, there's "trade c
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