🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘观望把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 05-27 15:29:00时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 17:13:17回填·⚡ 决策 06-16 23:25:54·132.7 天前
KOL看多XFAB：博弈EU Chips Act 2补贴及硅光子/SiC概念
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in. Given EU CHIPS act…
观望 XFAB.US
KOL喊单，核心催化剂'EU Chips Act 2今日发布'未获一手官方来源证实，疑似混淆历史法案或具体项目拨款；且美股OTC流动性不足，需等政策证实及确认主板流动性后再定。
不做 NVDA.US
仅为KOL论证XFAB产业链地位的背景提及，对NVDA自身无实质业务或业绩催化，属于蹭热度。
不做 NVTS.US
仅为KOL论证XFAB功率半导体代工能力的背景提及，对NVTS自身无实质催化。
不做 POWI.US
仅为KOL论证XFAB代工关系的背景提及（PCN文件），对POWI自身无实质催化。
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原文全文
展开原文 · 1,730 字
$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in.
Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players.
> 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI
> Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches)
> The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US.
> One of the critical MEMS foundries
> ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag
> ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est.
> backstopped by Government:
- EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros
- US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce).
With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains).
So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments.
EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics.
~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag).
As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”.
Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name.
For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry.
Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts)
Thought it personally seemed compelling.
Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players.
> 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI
> Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches)
> The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US.
> One of the critical MEMS foundries
> ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag
> ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est.
> backstopped by Government:
- EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros
- US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce).
With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains).
So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments.
EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics.
~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag).
As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”.
Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this… Just under a different name.
For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry.
Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts)
Thought it personally seemed compelling.
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