🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:美股把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 05-30 13:43:27时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-03 17:00:55回填·⚡ 决策 06-16 21:52:34·132.8 天前
Sivers(SIVE)财报电话会释放光子学需求激增及美国双重上市预期，JBL合作带动光收发器需求
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Had some more time go through $SIVE earnings transcript, it’s very bullish: - $JBL pluggable partnership led to more op…
决策后走势暂无图(这条腿还没有复盘打分的日线切片)
怎么买 限价买入 不高于昨收 +10%、仅下一个交易日，不成交作废
怎么卖 止盈 +15%(半仓)/+25%(清仓) · 止损 -10% · 时间止损 5日
失效/反转 美国双重上市计划明确取消或推迟 / 光子学及SATCOM订单未如期落地
不做 JBL.US
JBL为大型EMS代工企业，与SIVE的光收发器合作对其整体营收和业绩弹性微乎其微，不构成股价催化
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Had some more time go through $SIVE earnings transcript, it’s very bullish:
- $JBL pluggable partnership led to more optical transceiver requests for $SIVE
So maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other large players are my guess.
- More laser capacity on top of Win Semi with more partners being developed. “When the timing is right, we will bring those details to the market.”
CEO said it’s not just Win/Glasgow. I’m already confident in Win Semi scaling capacity, given they’re critical in SpaceX / $AVGO supply chains already.
But this derisks those capacity ramp even more. Just not publicly disclosed yet.
- tremendous executive credibility and experience with U.S. markets, as well as strong M&A experience
Flagged M&A in regards to new board members, which we guessed based on their backgrounds.
- “Production orders are imminent from our lead SATCOM”…
So that’s volume ramp for space
- U.S dual listing progressing smoothly
No exact timeline, my personal guess was around late Q3 or Q4. Probably after June board meeting, they’ll announce timing since that’s when new board members come in.
- “Viewing the ecosystem vendors as competitors is the wrong way to go about it in supercycles where demand far outstrips supply.”
Too much demand in photonics
- “Over the last five months, there's been a rapid increase in the Photonics pipeline as well”
Basically 77% growth pipeline came from photonics (which validated thesis about cpo/pluggable growth vectors for sivers)
TLDR:
We moved from “can sivers get customers this small and can they compete with $LITE?”
To execution eg. “how much can sivers even produce to feed into each supercycle” as they’re volume ramping while demand > supply.”
To me that’s very positive if anything they make gets bought.
Also there’s likely to be a lot of TAM expansion in the photonics space post-M&A as well as more ongoing hyperscaler supplier qualifications hinted.
Again, revenue pipeline surged 77% in just their quarter (5m) largely
- $JBL pluggable partnership led to more optical transceiver requests for $SIVE
So maybe Innolight/Eoptolink and other large players are my guess.
- More laser capacity on top of Win Semi with more partners being developed. “When the timing is right, we will bring those details to the market.”
CEO said it’s not just Win/Glasgow. I’m already confident in Win Semi scaling capacity, given they’re critical in SpaceX / $AVGO supply chains already.
But this derisks those capacity ramp even more. Just not publicly disclosed yet.
- tremendous executive credibility and experience with U.S. markets, as well as strong M&A experience
Flagged M&A in regards to new board members, which we guessed based on their backgrounds.
- “Production orders are imminent from our lead SATCOM”…
So that’s volume ramp for space
- U.S dual listing progressing smoothly
No exact timeline, my personal guess was around late Q3 or Q4. Probably after June board meeting, they’ll announce timing since that’s when new board members come in.
- “Viewing the ecosystem vendors as competitors is the wrong way to go about it in supercycles where demand far outstrips supply.”
Too much demand in photonics
- “Over the last five months, there's been a rapid increase in the Photonics pipeline as well”
Basically 77% growth pipeline came from photonics (which validated thesis about cpo/pluggable growth vectors for sivers)
TLDR:
We moved from “can sivers get customers this small and can they compete with $LITE?”
To execution eg. “how much can sivers even produce to feed into each supercycle” as they’re volume ramping while demand > supply.”
To me that’s very positive if anything they make gets bought.
Also there’s likely to be a lot of TAM expansion in the photonics space post-M&A as well as more ongoing hyperscaler supplier qualifications hinted.
Again, revenue pipeline surged 77% in just their quarter (5m) largely
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