KOL推测XFAB硅光子业务有望获英伟达2027年CPO订单

Okay... just some more weekend shower thoughts about $XFAB.

I still feel like it could be the next $TSEM, just early stage at a $1.4B MC?

They kinda leapfrogged current gens (which $TSEM are getting volume from) to compete for H2 2027 CPO scale up inflection point ($ASX docs cite Xfab (aka. photonixFAB) as focusing on CPO)

By building out some black magic MTP (transfer printing) architecture for lasers w/ other stuff like TFLN.

Basically next-gen integration IP, they're still behind on yields, sure.

But $NVDA evaluating it for transceivers/switches to see if it can volume ramp. That $NOK sets the specifications/assembly for. (nvidia invested in nokia for this these switches/networking too btw).

And if their MTP supply chain works... (eg. with Smartphotonics providing lasers, EU players doing assembly).

It basically volume ramps with $NVDA just like why Nvidia signed long term agreements with $TSEM?

Downside risk?

Already below replacement book value, can always go lower yeah, but typically to a certain point.

Maybe more CHIPS act subsidies next few months from chips act 2. If it doesn't go well there's SiC (152% Y/Y Growth, 195% Y/Y SiC wafer shipment growth)/GaN power semi upside.

Europeans /LLMs will say "oh evaluations doesn't mean it's a future contract!".

This is kinda different since the European Union is behind this effort and $XFAB for soverign photonic supply chains.

Not your typical company + hyperscaler evaluation, since $NVDA wants to be nice to Europe's regulators. They'd prob be pissed if nvidia just stayed in US/Taiwan/China.

So if they can make this MTP black magic work with mass production, feels almost for sure nvidia/nokia volume ramp on some tiny $1.4B silicon photonics foundry or at least throw them a bone with smaller contracts.

In terms of timelines, maybe just a months early since it volume ramps H2 2027/H1 2028 (which happens to be in line with CPO scale up timelines)...

Or just unknown because they named their project som