🐦 推特aleabitoredditV1 · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·源无时间·以抓取为准·⟳ 抓取 06-07 11:37:40回填·⚡ 决策 06-16 18:06:11·132.9 天前
KOL发布投资反思与持仓逻辑长文，无底层新催化剂
📄 原文aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection: It's inherently discretionary, based o…
不做 AXTI.US
KOL清单帖与反思长文，无底层新催化剂。AXTI为其过去已验证的持仓回顾，当前无新信息驱动，属情绪噪音。
不做 XFAB.US
KOL主观猜测其硅光子业务前景，明确表示无清晰营收数据且处于pre-commercial阶段，纯属个人推断，无实质催化剂。
不做 AAOI.US
KOL基于个人对2027年营收的简单线性外推认为低估，缺乏一手数据或新订单支撑，属主观估值猜测，不具备交易edge。
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I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection:
It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences?
If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others.
Lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it's right or not down the line.
$RPI is the perfect example:
1. Nobody really thought of Raspberry Pis for AI growth. Mainly people bought one or two just for class + education + hobbyist.
2. After OpenClaw, just noticed all my friends and people just buying Apple Mac Minis / RPIs for AI applications.
3. Found validation of that trend online with lot of people sharing video tutorials on AI orchestration with RPI.
4. AI was their ideal perfect growth vector, did some modeling, and thought it was compelling.
Earnings comes out and I was right.
Everyone in media was calling it a meme stock because there's nothing online that shows revenue growth from AI (was 14% forecasted revenue growth, turned out to be 58%, my projection was around 55%).
So it was a mix of guessing next industry trend (AI using lightweight hardware instead of GPU clusters), real life trends, then revenue forecasting off my guess.
For stuff like $AXTI:
1. Everyone called it a joke when I bought at ~$12. LLMs would hallucinate and say "hyperscalers/govs would have known about this by now and fixed this vulnerability with InP substrates"
2. Or would conflate very nuanced parts of InP substrate stack, where there's multiple different chokepoints in upstream processing.
3. So part of this was just discretionary based on what I've seen over InP substrate breakdowns, industry trends, etc.
4. Then also guessing the major supercycle was photonics (this was before everyone caught onto $LITE, and others). Or before you saw the $141B TAM projections from GS.
5. AXT owned 40% of InP supply chain, without them the supply chain just gets cripped).
6. All the "analysts" were forecast
It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences?
If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others.
Lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it's right or not down the line.
$RPI is the perfect example:
1. Nobody really thought of Raspberry Pis for AI growth. Mainly people bought one or two just for class + education + hobbyist.
2. After OpenClaw, just noticed all my friends and people just buying Apple Mac Minis / RPIs for AI applications.
3. Found validation of that trend online with lot of people sharing video tutorials on AI orchestration with RPI.
4. AI was their ideal perfect growth vector, did some modeling, and thought it was compelling.
Earnings comes out and I was right.
Everyone in media was calling it a meme stock because there's nothing online that shows revenue growth from AI (was 14% forecasted revenue growth, turned out to be 58%, my projection was around 55%).
So it was a mix of guessing next industry trend (AI using lightweight hardware instead of GPU clusters), real life trends, then revenue forecasting off my guess.
For stuff like $AXTI:
1. Everyone called it a joke when I bought at ~$12. LLMs would hallucinate and say "hyperscalers/govs would have known about this by now and fixed this vulnerability with InP substrates"
2. Or would conflate very nuanced parts of InP substrate stack, where there's multiple different chokepoints in upstream processing.
3. So part of this was just discretionary based on what I've seen over InP substrate breakdowns, industry trends, etc.
4. Then also guessing the major supercycle was photonics (this was before everyone caught onto $LITE, and others). Or before you saw the $141B TAM projections from GS.
5. AXT owned 40% of InP supply chain, without them the supply chain just gets cripped).
6. All the "analysts" were forecast
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