🐦 推特aleabitoredditV1 · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·源无时间·以抓取为准·⟳ 抓取 06-07 18:39:16回填·⚡ 决策 06-16 18:04:58·132.9 天前
KOL 发文警告 IREN/SLNH/BKKT 等存在有毒融资结构与稀释风险，看好 NBIS 资本结构
📄 原文aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics. Best example is current Neoclouds landscape: - $IREN is bas…
不做 IREN.US
KOL 指出的 60 亿 ATM 稀释风险为公开已知信息，无新催化剂；做空此类算力/加密概念股面临极高轧空风险，不具备交易 edge。
不做 NBIS.US
KOL 看好其资本结构，但年内已涨 153%+，利好已充分 price-in，追高无空间。
不做 SLNH.US
KOL 指出的巨额 ATM 为已知基本面瑕疵，做空小盘股风险极高且无短期催化剂，纯噪音。
不做 BKKT.US
KOL 吐槽高管薪酬稀释，属已知公司治理问题，无短期做空催化剂，回避。
不做 SNAP.US
SBC 掩盖盈利属市场已知共识，无新信息，不具备交易价值。
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原文全文
展开原文 · 1,522 字
Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics.
Best example is current Neoclouds landscape:
- $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang)
- While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.).
- On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs.
It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics.
If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion.
But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term)
With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like
$SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC.
Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay.
With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags.
With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution.
There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.
Best example is current Neoclouds landscape:
- $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang)
- While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.).
- On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs.
It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics.
If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion.
But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term)
With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like
$SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC.
Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay.
With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags.
With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution.
There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.
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