🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 06-08 13:11:38时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-08 13:16:43·⚡ 决策 06-14 19:07:32 +6d05h·135.0 天前
KOL发文看多绿的谐波(688017.SH)为人形机器人核心零部件龙头
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I do think LeaderDrive (688017) is China's standout component leader in the robotics sector. I've done a lot of researc…
不做 688017.SH
KOL长文逻辑分享，无短期突发催化剂；谐波减速器及特斯拉供应链预期属市场熟知的老逻辑，已被充分讨论，缺乏预期差；作者亦明确表示非短期交易标的。
不做 TSLA.US
仅作为人形机器人下游需求方(Optimus)背景提及，无针对公司本身的新增催化或基本面变化。
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I do think LeaderDrive (688017) is China's standout component leader in the robotics sector.
I've done a lot of research on other robotics picks / $TSLA Optimus suppliers, but LeaderDrive is extremely unique.
Compared to others doing lower margin assembly, or lower value components, with higher design out risk.
Western institutions like Goldman Sachs Research flags LeaderDrive many times:
-> As a company with high technology barriers (eg. harmonic reduction gear).
-> and likely capturing high component value costs like planetary roller screws of each humanoid produced.
In simpler terms with LeaderDrive, you cover:
1. Many different components, with high barrier to entry
2. High BOM of each humanoid made, if you combine them together
3. Mass production capability at low cost.
For each humanoid made.
Please do your research on this topic before making your own decision; but long-term if you believe in humanoid sector growth: I think LeaderDrive (688017) is very compelling.
Risk is mainly coming from other emerging Chinese companies taking over market share of different individual components.
As well as mass-production margins decreasing over time; as seen with $VPG going from $750 (for early stage pre-production) -> $150 for sensors.
But in general, I don't believe companies outside China like Harmonic Drive (6324) can achieve the same costs for mass production, which is why $TSLA Optimus is creating extensive supply chains from China.
So we'll likely see supply chains be bifurcated with cheap mass production $15k-20K humanoids from Chinese supply chains. And higher cost humanoids from Western supply chains.
Again if you look at current P/E ratios and say it's high; a lot of it is misunderstanding comes from not looking at forward growth:
Nothing has been mass produced yet. AGIbot has recently achieved 10k units produced back in March.
But in the next 3-5 years, the TAM of the humanoid/robotics sector forecasted by Elon Musk and others very large
I've done a lot of research on other robotics picks / $TSLA Optimus suppliers, but LeaderDrive is extremely unique.
Compared to others doing lower margin assembly, or lower value components, with higher design out risk.
Western institutions like Goldman Sachs Research flags LeaderDrive many times:
-> As a company with high technology barriers (eg. harmonic reduction gear).
-> and likely capturing high component value costs like planetary roller screws of each humanoid produced.
In simpler terms with LeaderDrive, you cover:
1. Many different components, with high barrier to entry
2. High BOM of each humanoid made, if you combine them together
3. Mass production capability at low cost.
For each humanoid made.
Please do your research on this topic before making your own decision; but long-term if you believe in humanoid sector growth: I think LeaderDrive (688017) is very compelling.
Risk is mainly coming from other emerging Chinese companies taking over market share of different individual components.
As well as mass-production margins decreasing over time; as seen with $VPG going from $750 (for early stage pre-production) -> $150 for sensors.
But in general, I don't believe companies outside China like Harmonic Drive (6324) can achieve the same costs for mass production, which is why $TSLA Optimus is creating extensive supply chains from China.
So we'll likely see supply chains be bifurcated with cheap mass production $15k-20K humanoids from Chinese supply chains. And higher cost humanoids from Western supply chains.
Again if you look at current P/E ratios and say it's high; a lot of it is misunderstanding comes from not looking at forward growth:
Nothing has been mass produced yet. AGIbot has recently achieved 10k units produced back in March.
But in the next 3-5 years, the TAM of the humanoid/robotics sector forecasted by Elon Musk and others very large
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