🐦 推特aleabitoredditV1 · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·源无时间·以抓取为准·⟳ 抓取 06-09 14:44:07回填·⚡ 决策 06-16 16:28:10·133.0 天前
KOL 看多 Jabil (JBL) 1.6T 光模块代工业务，认为其轻资产模式优于 AAOI
📄 原文aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B. Don’t really think markets have priced in their…
不做 JBL.US
KOL 个人长期基本面推演(预期 H1 2027 重估)，无短期事件催化，作者自述无持仓，属于研究线索而非交易信号，无短期 edge。
不做 AAOI.US
推文中仅作为 JBL 的对标提及，认为其重资产扩产模式不如 JBL，无独立做多逻辑，且无短期催化。
不做 SIVE.US
代码疑似错误或非美股主流标的(可能指瑞典 Sivers Semiconductors SIVE.ST)，无法唯一消歧，且仅为供应链背景提及。
不做 INTC.US
仅作为 JBL 接管产线的背景提及，非推文核心逻辑，无交易价值。
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展开原文 · 901 字
Just a random thought: $JBL seems highkey compelling long idea at $38B.
Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet.
Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand.
They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines.
Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest.
So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain.
Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on.
Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible?
(dont have any open positions, just a thought)
Don’t really think markets have priced in their 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver business yet.
Especially if it’s “how much can you make” with $SIVE as the bottleneck H1 2027. Not really is there enough demand.
They already have the massive supply chains setup… and took over $INTC pluggable lines.
Seems more scalable than $AAOI capex ATMs for laser fabs, if you have $SIVE + tons of different fabs like Win Semi + others mass producing lasers and $JBL doing the rest.
So you’re getting that Innolight style setup for free (with US premiums), with an already validated hyperscaler supply chain.
Don’t currently have positions, just throwing out a thought for others to do research on.
Prob H1 2027 is when everyone starts realizing. Maybe 40% rereating seems plausible?
(dont have any open positions, just a thought)
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