🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 06-14 23:27:22时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-14 23:37:26·⚡ 决策 06-16 06:38:21 +1d07h·133.4 天前
KOL发表'基本面优于技术分析'观点，复盘SPCE/SIVE/AXTI等过往走势
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
This is gonna upset a lot of people: But TA is astrology for traders. It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology…
不做 SPCE.US
KOL观点帖，仅作为散户混淆代码的例子提及，无新催化剂
不做 SPCX.US
KOL观点帖，仅作为散户混淆代码的例子提及，无新催化剂
不做 SIVE.US
KOL观点帖，仅作为过去基本面驱动上涨的复盘例子，无新催化剂，且已大涨
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原文全文
展开原文 · 1,354 字
This is gonna upset a lot of people:
But TA is astrology for traders.
It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries.
Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology.
$SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499.
It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced.
$AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8.
it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others.
If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA.
But for determining the actual upside... nah
People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first.
It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on.
Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at.
So for entry points, sure you can use TA.
For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.
But TA is astrology for traders.
It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries.
Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology.
$SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499.
It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced.
$AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8.
it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others.
If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA.
But for determining the actual upside... nah
People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first.
It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on.
Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at.
So for entry points, sure you can use TA.
For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.
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