KOL发表AI算力投资观点：看好上游半导体与头部云厂，担忧Neocloud债务风险

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history.

To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution.

Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence.

The amount of economic impact can't be measured if AI helps find cures for cancer or accelerates discovery for Quantum Computing.

Or if AI end up displacing the workforce, which increases profitability for companies.

The US Gov has every incentive to keep the buildout going too, as the implications from Warfare, Cybersecurity, is also immeasurable if China takes the lead.

So there's likely to be incentives and subsidies to win, even if there's not enough profit derived LLM training/inference.

As for sustainability, when you look upstream, $GOOGL is able to fund it majorly with their own cashflow, same with $AMZN, $MSFT.

More lukewarm on $META. Very iffy about $ORCL.

But I do see some bubbles forming around debt interest like $CRWV.

Maybe circular valuations that's happening with OpenAI backlog agreements or $NVDA / $AMD agreements with Neoclouds to buy their GPUs.

But as seen with $MSFT and having OpenAI be a major part of the backlog, it did correct off the information, so "bubbles" like that do pop despite the overall markets increasing.

Definitely don't see a bubble in upstream semiconductors from $LITE to Sk Hynix though since the amount of profit they get from the buildout would likely be insane to make up for capex decreasing.

OpenAI was actually my biggest fear from contagion, eg. $CRWV, $CBRS and others, but they just raised a lot.

So think it will be fine for another 1 1/2 years of capex, especially if they IPO this year.

I also don't think we'll get massive Fed tightening despite "predictions" since this will trigger a contagion since many of these players rely heavily on debt.

And although the Fed is independent, don't think Trump would have supported someone who is against his administration goals.

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