🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 10:26:55时区推断·⟳ 抓取 10:38:03·⚡ 决策 06-17 10:42:56 +4m53s·132.3 天前
KOL发文看多AAOI远期光模块产能与营收，提及AMD为潜在客户
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long… Ever since $30, then on the way up to $…
不做 AAOI.US
KOL个人看多推文，核心逻辑基于2027年远期营收预期，且作者承认存在6亿美元ATM增发稀释风险。缺乏短期实质性订单或财报催化剂，基本面瑕疵与远期不确定性导致预期值不佳。
不做 AMD.US
仅在推文中作为AAOI的潜在客户被提及，对AMD自身基本面、业务和市值无任何实质影响，属于纯噪音。
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I’m not sure why many folks are super bearish on my high conviction $AAOI long…
Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right).
They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for.
While the entire industry is bottlenecked by $NVDA.
Along with a US transceiver supply chain for mass production of 800g/1.6T (management - largest in America).
While demand far exceeds supply and while assembly gets outsourced to Asia.
Then they’re quoting $471M monthly revenue in H1 entering H2 of 2027. Which is $5.6B ARR, off a $13.5B MC…
While a lot of major inflection volume hits even later in 2028.
As for fluctuations, there might be active $600M ATMs that get tapped into at random times.
And random bear posts + macro from time to time that cause more volatility (eg. Analyst notes saying bear on $LITE due to false CPO delay rumors, then that brings down others in the sector).
Also we’re a year out so timelines are still a little early.
I haven’t seen such fast revenue ramp since $NBIS.
Ever since $30, then on the way up to $170. (Yes I do think every bear is wrong, we’ll see who’s right).
They have scarce laser capacity that $AMD and other hyperscalers are looking for.
While the entire industry is bottlenecked by $NVDA.
Along with a US transceiver supply chain for mass production of 800g/1.6T (management - largest in America).
While demand far exceeds supply and while assembly gets outsourced to Asia.
Then they’re quoting $471M monthly revenue in H1 entering H2 of 2027. Which is $5.6B ARR, off a $13.5B MC…
While a lot of major inflection volume hits even later in 2028.
As for fluctuations, there might be active $600M ATMs that get tapped into at random times.
And random bear posts + macro from time to time that cause more volatility (eg. Analyst notes saying bear on $LITE due to false CPO delay rumors, then that brings down others in the sector).
Also we’re a year out so timelines are still a little early.
I haven’t seen such fast revenue ramp since $NBIS.
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