🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘没法做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 18:33:46时区推断·⟳ 抓取 18:35:53·⚡ 决策 06-22 18:39:20 +3m27s·127.2 天前
KOL推演LPKF玻璃基板设备长线逻辑，预测市值30-50亿美元
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As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess. Feels more asymmetrical to m…
不做 LPK.US
LPKF Laser主要为德股(LPK.DE)，美股LPK.US(OTC)流动性极差无法有效交易；且推文纯属KOL长线逻辑推演与市值猜测，无短期硬催化剂(订单/业绩)，缺乏事件驱动edge。
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As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess.
Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates.
Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC.
Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small:
Maybe you have stuff like:
- Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B
- Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B
- Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B
- MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M
- Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M
Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc).
Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment.
But for lpk you have:
eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”.
70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI).
Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now:
- <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!"
---> (probably somewhere in the middle here).
- < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!"
- $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp.
Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.
Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates.
Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC.
Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small:
Maybe you have stuff like:
- Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B
- Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B
- Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B
- MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M
- Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M
Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc).
Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment.
But for lpk you have:
eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”.
70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI).
Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now:
- <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!"
---> (probably somewhere in the middle here).
- < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!"
- $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp.
Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.
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