🐦 推特SerenityV1 · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 11:16:44时区推断·⟳ 抓取 11:19:05·⚡ 决策 06-23 11:26:15 +7m10s·126.4 天前
KOL重申CW laser与CPO产业瓶颈逻辑，看好LITE及光通信供应链
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
IMO photonics theme + CW laser chokepoint is goated. It's legit like markets have short term memory loss and forgot how…
不做 LITE.US
KOL重申CW laser与CPO已知产业逻辑，无短期新催化剂，底层趋势已部分price-in，缺乏事件驱动edge
不做 NVDA.US
大盘股，KOL逻辑帖对NVDA无短期边际影响，不具备事件驱动交易价值
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原文全文
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IMO photonics theme + CW laser chokepoint is goated.
It's legit like markets have short term memory loss and forgot how $LITE went from $3B -> $65B+ from 2024 to now.
Because $NVDA caused EML bottlenecks, and forced architectural changes.
We're literally seeing the same thing today with CW lasers + 1.6T/CPO shifts with Nvidia signing LTAs everywhere.
Now, $AMD + other CSPs are hunting for remaining scraps with large LTAs for CW lasers + optical components.
GS Research's ~9-10x $154B optical TAM in 2028 and near $0 -> $91B CPO TAM in just 2 1/2 years.
Don't just magically disappear from a month of trading volatility.
$AAOI sitting at ~$13B, $SIVE sitting at ~$3B, and other CW laser players look strategically very valuable.
And next year I think we'll look back and say "Why didn't I learn my lesson the first time with EML from Nvidia and pick up CW laser adjacent names!"
Then there's likely gonna be some new mini trend 1-2 years from now like microled or quantum dot and we're gonna see the same thing repeat.
Think Sumitomo's projections with CW laser share + silicon photonics being majority / dominant architecture should be correct.
I'm personally just focusing on that bottleneck as you've seen with $SOI, $TSEM, $SIVE, and others.
It's legit like markets have short term memory loss and forgot how $LITE went from $3B -> $65B+ from 2024 to now.
Because $NVDA caused EML bottlenecks, and forced architectural changes.
We're literally seeing the same thing today with CW lasers + 1.6T/CPO shifts with Nvidia signing LTAs everywhere.
Now, $AMD + other CSPs are hunting for remaining scraps with large LTAs for CW lasers + optical components.
GS Research's ~9-10x $154B optical TAM in 2028 and near $0 -> $91B CPO TAM in just 2 1/2 years.
Don't just magically disappear from a month of trading volatility.
$AAOI sitting at ~$13B, $SIVE sitting at ~$3B, and other CW laser players look strategically very valuable.
And next year I think we'll look back and say "Why didn't I learn my lesson the first time with EML from Nvidia and pick up CW laser adjacent names!"
Then there's likely gonna be some new mini trend 1-2 years from now like microled or quantum dot and we're gonna see the same thing repeat.
Think Sumitomo's projections with CW laser share + silicon photonics being majority / dominant architecture should be correct.
I'm personally just focusing on that bottleneck as you've seen with $SOI, $TSEM, $SIVE, and others.
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