🐦 推特SerenityV2 · 实盘不做把握 3/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 10:15:43时区推断·⟳ 抓取 10:18:15·⚡ 决策 06-25 14:56:24 +4h38m·124.5 天前
Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversifi
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversified Losses. With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others. Had a…
不做 AXTI.US
[分诊过滤] 纯情绪+长期thesis复盘帖：博主自述CPO/光子板块巨亏、自封"分散亏损"策略，无任何具体近期催化事件；自己明确说不能给买入建议、且拐点要到2027中-2028"现在H2 2026可能太早"，属于情绪宣泄+远期叙事，没有可执行的事件依据。
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Think so. But in the meantime, I call my strategy: Diversified Losses.
With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others.
Had a massive drawdown recently,
CPO exposure was hit the hardest (Foci, Msscorp, etc) and adjacent names, feels bad.
Probably lesson personally, I had too much concentration in photonics vs. memory/other sectors without weighting/hedging properly.
With Soitec, there's been a few negative institutional reports that I'd disagree with.
Think AXT was hit harder in specific just because of float expansion/dilution concerns. AAOI, probably just brought down with the theme.
I can't give advice on buying, so completely up to you to make for cost averaging or entering positions.
But I do think we're still early in the Supercycle with photonics, there's bound to be corrections/crashes along the way up.
If my personal thesis is correct though, many of these names will have a major inflection point in midway through 2027 scaling up to 2028.
Markets don't typically wait to price things in advance, but some ideas might be a tad early or in the buildout given it's H2 2026 now.
Which is why it's important to build your own conviction.
With $AXTI, $SOI, $AAOI, and many others.
Had a massive drawdown recently,
CPO exposure was hit the hardest (Foci, Msscorp, etc) and adjacent names, feels bad.
Probably lesson personally, I had too much concentration in photonics vs. memory/other sectors without weighting/hedging properly.
With Soitec, there's been a few negative institutional reports that I'd disagree with.
Think AXT was hit harder in specific just because of float expansion/dilution concerns. AAOI, probably just brought down with the theme.
I can't give advice on buying, so completely up to you to make for cost averaging or entering positions.
But I do think we're still early in the Supercycle with photonics, there's bound to be corrections/crashes along the way up.
If my personal thesis is correct though, many of these names will have a major inflection point in midway through 2027 scaling up to 2028.
Markets don't typically wait to price things in advance, but some ideas might be a tad early or in the buildout given it's H2 2026 now.
Which is why it's important to build your own conviction.
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