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Just from my personal experiences: My new heuristic is mark
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Just from my personal experiences: My new heuristic is markets tend to price things in ~8 months in advance unless your…
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[分诊过滤] 纯个人择时框架的泛论essay（'市场提前~8个月定价'），横扫光子/存储/玻璃基板/人形/Neocloud多主题，虽点名LITE/COHR/MU/NBIS等可交易标的但无任何具体新事件或催化剂，只是对各主题节奏的标准化看法，没有可落地的研究触发点。
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Just from my personal experiences:
My new heuristic is markets tend to price things in ~8 months in advance unless your theme is Space, Robotics/Quantum.
For themes I'm tracking:
For photonics:
- Next-gen pluggables (1.6T) are right around now (ex. $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, etc. then $AAOI, $JBL 1.6T LRO and other later bloomers H1 2027).
- CPO Scale Out is late H2 2026 (ex. $POET, Shunsin, those types etc)
- NPO stuff H2 2026/2027 prob as bridge architectures
- CPO Scale Up H2 2027 (ex. Ayar, Celestial, etc).
If I use the 8 month rule like 4 months too early for CPO Scale Up Names.
But in hindsight, I wanted to be early this time around given I felt this was the most compelling architectural shift given GS tam projections + markets seem to disagree, which is why there's a selloff with Foci/MSScorp and others;.
Memory theme is quite a massive bottleneck as you've been seeing:
- HBM3e around now as you've seen with Micron, Samsung, Sk Hynix etc. and NAND with Sandisk.
- HBM4 mass production right around now too with SK Hynix, Micron/Samsung.
- HBF 2027?
But again these are the same Kioxia, Samsung, Sk Hynix, $MU, Kioxia players across different architectures, and we're seeing re-rating cause we're mid-bottleneck.
Glass Substrates:
H2 2026 start with SKC Absolics (probably just early stage ramp).
H2 2027 - 2028 is where the fun begins, with 2028 TSM CoPoS, others like Samsung etc. 2027. and Intel later on.
Humanoid Suppliers:
Very early, but as I said with Space markets probably won't wait to price this in with Elon giving bullish $TSLA optimus projections and Chinese humanoid companies like Unitree/AGI Bot starting to ramp up.
Neoclouds:
I said this was probably the buildout period for many of the players and Q4 2026 earnings is when some of the leaders typically hit inflection.
Like with $NBIS $7-9B ARR, that ARR proj should hit Q4 earnings. If we apply that ~8M rule, Jan/Feb was very depressing, but it's starting to pick up now given markets
My new heuristic is markets tend to price things in ~8 months in advance unless your theme is Space, Robotics/Quantum.
For themes I'm tracking:
For photonics:
- Next-gen pluggables (1.6T) are right around now (ex. $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, etc. then $AAOI, $JBL 1.6T LRO and other later bloomers H1 2027).
- CPO Scale Out is late H2 2026 (ex. $POET, Shunsin, those types etc)
- NPO stuff H2 2026/2027 prob as bridge architectures
- CPO Scale Up H2 2027 (ex. Ayar, Celestial, etc).
If I use the 8 month rule like 4 months too early for CPO Scale Up Names.
But in hindsight, I wanted to be early this time around given I felt this was the most compelling architectural shift given GS tam projections + markets seem to disagree, which is why there's a selloff with Foci/MSScorp and others;.
Memory theme is quite a massive bottleneck as you've been seeing:
- HBM3e around now as you've seen with Micron, Samsung, Sk Hynix etc. and NAND with Sandisk.
- HBM4 mass production right around now too with SK Hynix, Micron/Samsung.
- HBF 2027?
But again these are the same Kioxia, Samsung, Sk Hynix, $MU, Kioxia players across different architectures, and we're seeing re-rating cause we're mid-bottleneck.
Glass Substrates:
H2 2026 start with SKC Absolics (probably just early stage ramp).
H2 2027 - 2028 is where the fun begins, with 2028 TSM CoPoS, others like Samsung etc. 2027. and Intel later on.
Humanoid Suppliers:
Very early, but as I said with Space markets probably won't wait to price this in with Elon giving bullish $TSLA optimus projections and Chinese humanoid companies like Unitree/AGI Bot starting to ramp up.
Neoclouds:
I said this was probably the buildout period for many of the players and Q4 2026 earnings is when some of the leaders typically hit inflection.
Like with $NBIS $7-9B ARR, that ARR proj should hit Q4 earnings. If we apply that ~8M rule, Jan/Feb was very depressing, but it's starting to pick up now given markets
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