🐦 推特SerenityV3 · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 06-25 22:51:04时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-26 11:43:32·⚡ 决策 06-30 07:45:34 +3d20h·119.7 天前
KOL 清单帖:对冲基金宠儿(光通信/太空/PLTR/CRM)在鹰派Fed+加息恐慌中暴跌40%,作者称或因保证金强平超跌、仍长期看好AI建设
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed… Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far. - Pho…
不做 MU.US
本信号未给MU任何新的单名催化——它只是被作为'还没崩'的强势标杆点名;13周轨迹100→307(已三倍)、距52周高仅-10%、PE25.9、$1.29T巨头,在一条宏观情绪贴上追近ATH毫无edge
不做 AXTI.US
光通信/衬底,20日-31%、轨迹冲到257后崩回151是典型动量瓦解;无公司催化,在持续下行的阴跌票上接飞刀正是经验库警告的做多逆风,近2日仅+1.6/+1.2弱反弹,EV不正
不做 ASTS.US
今日已+21.4%、近2日+8.9/+21.4大反弹,'超跌反弹'已兑现;此刻盘后追高=买在大涨之后,且太空股并非作者看好的AI建设受益方,本信号不提供单名买点
不做 RKLB.US
今日已+15.9%,反弹同样已发生;无本信号特有的单名催化,盘后追高无edge
不做 PLTR.US
13周轨迹100→79持续下行、逼近52周低($106),无公司催化,阴跌票不做多;仅被点名为'已跌35%YTD'的现象,非买点
不做 CRM.US
13周轨迹100→85下行、逼近52周低($146),软件估值压缩中,无单名催化,持续走弱不做多
另有 1 腿,见展开详情。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
其余 1 腿
不做 SIVE.US
取不到行情(price_snapshot 无K线/无实时价),无法定位唯一可交易报价,绝不编价
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-06-25 · 扩散 medium · price-in 风险 high
主要风险
- 这是一条4天前的宏观情绪贴而非单一公司催化:无可定价的单名 edge,'保证金强平超跌反弹'的隐含逻辑已在流动性好的名字上兑现(ASTS今日+21%/RKLB+16%/AXTI企稳),现在追=买在盘后大涨之后
- 作者本人对方向不确定并点名'1-2次潜在加息'是逆风;鹰派Fed若属实是对整条AI建设/长久期科技(含我账户里的算力链多头)的系统性压制,而非任何单票的买点
原文全文
展开原文 · 737 字
Feels like the only thing that hasn’t crashed…
Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far.
- Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%.
- Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M.
- Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD.
- Software like $CRM down -40%.
- Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k.
Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes.
However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps.
But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run.
I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.
Is memory like $MU, indexes, or large cap semis like Intel so far.
- Photonics from $AXTI to $SIVE down 40%.
- Space from $ASTS and $RKLB down 40% 1M.
- Popular AI names like $PLTR is down ~35% YTD.
- Software like $CRM down -40%.
- Bitcoin sub <60k, Ethereum sub <$16k.
Not a fun time with a hawkish fed narrative and potential rate hikes.
However this does sorta feel overshot due to margin liquidations on less liquid assets compared to mega caps.
But we’ll see what happens, usually fundamentals override liquidity shock in the longer run.
I’m still personally bullish on the AI buildout + upstream AI capex beneficiaries, but 1-2 potential rate hikes certainly don’t help.
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