🐦 推特SerenityV2 · 实盘不做把握 8/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 00:15:27时区推断·⟳ 抓取 11:43:31·⚡ 决策 06-26 12:18:36 +35m05s·123.1 天前
KOL(Serenity)对SIVE/CPO光子链的防守性喊单清单帖——越跌越加,叙事掩盖做空指控与董事会出走
这是KOL对SIVE当日-21%的防守性喊单(发帖人自称越跌越买),非硬催化;底层实为Ningi做空报告质疑约31%营收(研究补助充作商业收入)+创始人级董事会3人离任+瑞典经济犯罪局调查,而KOL用'非法机器人农场'阴谋论辩护、并谎称在'优先推进NASDAQ上市'(该上市提案实际已在6/15 AGM前被撤回)——属完美利好需先证伪的红线情形,不做多。
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GF…
不做 SIVE.US
KOL防守性喊单,非催化;底层为做空指控(31%营收存疑)+董事会出走+监管调查+NASDAQ上市提案被撤回,KOL叙事误导;30天已涨107%极度price-in。不做多(完美利好红线)、不裸空(置信低+借券未确认+轧空风险);另取价服务超时无法获价。
不做 AAOI.US
KOL清单提及,无硬催化;$471M月营收为H2 2027才兑现的已知远期projection;光子板块高波动,迟到的清单多为出货;无真实报价不可ENTER。
不做 POET.US
KOL清单提及,自身有Wolfpack做空史+Marvell取消订单史,投机性强、无硬催化,本帖不构成可交易edge;无报价。
不做 GFS.US
大盘代工厂,仅作生态背景被点名;GFS-Sivers CPO合作已于6/2公告并price-in,KOL帖对其市值无弹性,无edge。
不做 NVDA.US
巨头,仅作为NVLink生态背景被提及,与本信号无任何可交易edge。
不做 A15229.SH
代码疑似归一错误,A15229非常规A股个股代码,无法消歧到唯一可交易标的、亦无法取价。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
关键理由
- 这是KOL对SIVE当日-21%的防守性喊单(发帖人自称越跌越买),非硬催化;底层实为Ningi做空报告质疑约31%营收(研究补助充作商业收入)+创始人级董事会3人离任+瑞典经济犯罪局调查,而KOL用'非法机器人农场'阴谋论辩护、并谎称在'优先推进NASDAQ上市'(该上市提案实际已在6/15 AGM前被撤回)——属完美利好需先证伪的红线情形,不做多。
- CPO/光子激光叙事自Q1已彻底price-in,SIVE近30天已涨107%、共识极度拥挤,即便方向看多也无edge;光子板块波动极大,追防守帖风险收益比差。
- 现为美股盘前不可成交,且取价服务持续超时无法获取任一标的真实现价——按纪律无价不可ENTER;做空红线亦未满足(置信低+借券未确认+历史从低点反弹92-107%的轧空风险),故不裸空,只能全数回避。
主要风险
- 反向风险:微盘战场股若NASDAQ上市重启或真实量产/订单兑现,可能再次暴力反弹(过去两月已从低点反弹92-107%),错过的是高弹性上行——但在造假指控未澄清且取不到价前,'可证伪+能成交'的小仓试探前提均不成立。
- 若做空,极易被逼空——这正是默认偏多、不裸空的原因。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,847 字
oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down.
$SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have:
- $GFS reference laser
- laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up
- $POET and others for CPO scale out
- $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers
- O-Net for ELS mass production
So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck...
And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward.
The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization).
You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop.
The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out.
But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media.
With $AAOI at $10B, you have:
- A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027.
- With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs.
And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m).
Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS.
This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu.
I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.
$SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have:
- $GFS reference laser
- laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up
- $POET and others for CPO scale out
- $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers
- O-Net for ELS mass production
So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck...
And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward.
The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization).
You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop.
The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out.
But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media.
With $AAOI at $10B, you have:
- A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027.
- With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs.
And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m).
Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS.
This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu.
I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.
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