🐦 推特SerenityV3 · 实盘观望把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 06-26 00:15:27时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-26 11:43:31·⚡ 决策 06-30 07:25:24 +3d19h·119.3 天前
KOL清单帖力挺Sivers(SIVE)为CPO激光瓶颈+看好AAOI光模块,但两者均深度回撤、SIVE治理暴雷且无法取价
全帖是一篇可信度受损的促销式多头清单帖:作者对旗舰标的SIVE的核心说法(15%增发只是NASDAQ上市浮筹的噪音)被事实证伪——6/15股东会NASDAQ上市提案临时撤回、董事会出走、做空攻击、真实增发+可转债并存,据此大幅折价整篇判断。
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down. $SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have: - $GF…
观望 AAOI.US
唯一有真实硬催化的标的(>2亿美元1.6T订单、7/1开始出货、对华授信翻倍),方向偏多;但①本信号是一条可信度受损的KOL促销帖、对该催化无增量edge,②今日已+10.6%抢跑这个已知里程碑、存在sell-the-news风险,③距60日高仍-36%、是下跌趋势中的反弹。不在被讨论的促销帖上追高,改为观望7/1出货兑现后的企稳/回踩再由后续决策接手。
不做 POET.US
仅被帖子泛泛点名为CPO scale-out方向、无任何具体硬催化;路径100→367(峰)→176、距高-53%、5日-18.5%/20日-19.9%,持续走弱的飞刀,'低位'不是看多理由;今日+4%属下跌中反弹,无edge不做。
不做 SIVE.US
无美股可成交价(alpaca取价失败,主上市为瑞典OM:SIVE、美股线为流动性极差OTC),结构上做不了;且基本面证伪帖子乐观叙事——6/15股东会NASDAQ上市撤回、董事会出走、做空攻击、真实增发(862万股@SEK14.5)+有担保可转债并存,即便能交易也属高风险治理暴雷微盘,回避。
不做 A15229.SH
stock_quote返回not_found;SH 15xxxx为债券/基金代码段、非股票,系上游清单帖裸数字误识别的标的,无唯一可交易正股,不可操作。
不做 NVDA.US
帖中仅作为NVLink/CPO生态的下游参考客户被提及,并非本事件的交易标的;数万亿市值巨头对一家约19亿美元微盘激光供应商的论述几乎无敏感度,无edge。
不做 GFS.US
帖中仅作为SIVE的'reference laser'代工/客户被提及,非交易标的,本信号对GFS无任何增量催化,无edge不做。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
关键理由
- 全帖是一篇可信度受损的促销式多头清单帖:作者对旗舰标的SIVE的核心说法(15%增发只是NASDAQ上市浮筹的噪音)被事实证伪——6/15股东会NASDAQ上市提案临时撤回、董事会出走、做空攻击、真实增发+可转债并存,据此大幅折价整篇判断。
- 唯一有硬催化的是AAOI(>2亿美元1.6T订单、7/1开始出货、对华授信翻倍),但它已从指数化236跌到174(距高-36%),今天又+10.6%抢跑这个已知里程碑,存在sell-the-news风险,且公司亏损(PE-231)、波动极高。
- 本信号已4天陈旧、对AAOI催化无任何增量edge;POET(距高-53%、路径367→176)与AAOI均是下跌趋势中的飞刀,逆势追多需盘面确认而非凭一条KOL帖。
主要风险
- 若AAOI 7/1的1.6T出货里程碑超预期、今天+10.6%即为底部,放过可能错过一轮类似作者所引NBIS式的真实产能爬坡反弹。
- SIVE日后若真完成NASDAQ上市,'激光瓶颈'逻辑或重估——但当前无可成交价、且治理危机未解,对我们不可交易。
原文全文
展开原文 · 1,847 字
oh i think u misunderstand... I'm actually more bullish than ever as prices go down.
$SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have:
- $GFS reference laser
- laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up
- $POET and others for CPO scale out
- $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers
- O-Net for ELS mass production
So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck...
And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward.
The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization).
You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop.
The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out.
But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media.
With $AAOI at $10B, you have:
- A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027.
- With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs.
And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m).
Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS.
This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu.
I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.
$SIVE at ~$1.9B MC you have:
- $GFS reference laser
- laser for Ayar and others in $NVDA NVLink ecosystem for CPO scale up
- $POET and others for CPO scale out
- $JBL and others for 1.6T+ pluggable optical transcivers
- O-Net for ELS mass production
So you have all these hyperscaler suppliers trying to create as much as possible with Sivers as the laser bottleneck...
And it's just a matter of how much Win Semi + others partners can make, with $SIVE receiving ~60% gross margins + optionality to TAM expand downward.
The 15% recent share expansion that Swedish media have been bearposting is for NASDAQ listing float + M&A (and it's authorization).
You just have potential short sellers running illegal bot farms, Swedish media bearposting a company Swedish exchange, on top of a general macro drop.
The ~$140M convertible note is real, but it's pennies to US institutions. We'll likely see more institutional ownership when data comes out.
But this is also why it's good for $SIVE to prioritize NASDAQ listing so they don't need to deal with this noise and local media.
With $AAOI at $10B, you have:
- A end-to-end US laser/design/assembly player projecting $471m month revenue H1 entering H2 2027.
- With other hyperscalers like $AMD apparently discussing LTAs.
And they probably are sitting on a ton of cash after running ~$1.4B in ATMs (400M + 400m+ 600m).
Kinda all that needs to be said with those insane revenue projections as long as management doesn't BS.
This just reminds me of when $NBIS crashed to $70 last year even while projecting $7-9B ARR, and as timelines got closer it recovered to $250+. Feels like dejavu.
I'm just waiting for both volume ramps to hit. Photonics are generally more volatile than the rest.
决策记录链 · 只追加
每次领取产生一条记录,重新决策追加一条并以 supersedes 指向被替代的记录(ADR 0014)。
这条决策早于决策账本(2026-10-08 起逐条追加),没有追加记录。