🐦 推特SerenityV2 · 实盘可交易 · 做多市场:美股▲ 赚 +2.16% · 已结算把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 08:34:45时区推断·⟳ 抓取 11:43:31·⚡ 决策 06-26 12:06:57 +23m26s·123.1 天前
功率半导体新一轮涨价(扬杰7/1全线+10-15%,华润微/士兰微/新洁能跟涨)——主题已4个月、直接受益A股贴52周高,美股AOSL/POWI为外溢叙事
功率半导体需求驱动涨价真实且在扩散(扬杰7/1全线+10-15%、华润微/士兰微/新洁能跟涨,KB确认芯联集成8寸MOS代工7月二次+15%,申万/alphapai自2月持续覆盖),周期方向明确向上。
📄 原文Serenity↗ 原文
Looks like Power Semis are already starting price hikes. Which is bullish thematically for US power semi trade from $AO…
▲ 赚 +2.16%入场 06-26 盘前首笔 @42.60 → 离场 06-29 开盘 @43.57
日 K 取自复盘打分切片 · 蓝点/蓝虚线 = 纸面入场价 · 灰虚线 = 纸面离场 · 持有期红底 = 赚(价格在入场线上方)、绿底 = 亏
💡 交易逻辑功率半导体需求驱动涨价真实且在扩散(扬杰7/1全线+10-15%、华润微/士兰微/新洁能跟涨,KB确认芯联集成8寸MOS代工7月二次+15%,申万/alphapai自2月持续覆盖),周期方向明确向上。
怎么买 回调买入 回落到 42.5 才买、2 个交易日内有效
怎么卖 止盈 +12%(半仓)/+25%(清仓) · 止损 -13% · 时间止损 5日
失效/反转 AI功率主升逻辑被证伪 / AOSL订单或指引下修 / 次2个交易时段内不回踩42.5则放弃
观望 POWI.US
Power Integrations对800V DC算力供电长期相关,但本条中国功率涨价对其read-through最弱;当日+3.6%、贴52周高(-7%)、PE 282,无新增edge,等回调或公司自身硬催化再评估
不做 300373.SZ
本条涨价直接当事方,但近5日已+20.5%/近20日+24.9%、贴52周高(-3.7%),涨价函(6/17内部/6/23媒体)已price-in,当日-2.2%见获利了结;追高R/R差(已充分price-in、无edge);A股不做空
不做 600460.SH
近20日已+40.1%、近5日+22.1%、贴52周高,PE 181,涨价主题已充分price-in,此处追高接最后一棒风险高;A股不做空
不做 688396.SH
近20日+28.5%、近5日+14.9%、贴52周高,今日XD除息且-1.2%,涨价已price-in、无edge;A股不做空
不做 605111.SH
近20日+18%、近5日+13.6%、贴52周高(-1.5%),MOS结构占比高已被市场认知并price-in,追高edge不足;A股不做空
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
分时走势
做多 AOSL.US
建仓日早于近 30 天,只有日线图
成交明细 · 纸面
做多 AOSL.US
| 收益状态 | +2.16% 已平仓 |
|---|---|
| 进场成交 | 2026-06-26 · 盘前首笔 · 06-26 16:01 北京 · @42.5956 · 成交 66% |
| 离场成交 | 2026-06-29 · 开盘 · @43.57 |
| 毛收益 | +2.29% |
| 成本 | +0.12% |
| 净收益 | +2.16% |
| 计入收益 | +1.44% |
| 建仓日 | 2026-06-26 · 进场不早于新闻时刻 + 2 分钟 |
收益口径 event_time_plus_2min_10min_walk_open_topup_to_next_open_exchange_calendar_fill_model_local_notional_v9 · method_id m8db1cbc8f2d · 截至 2026-10-27 13:51
研究档案
关键理由
- 功率半导体需求驱动涨价真实且在扩散(扬杰7/1全线+10-15%、华润微/士兰微/新洁能跟涨,KB确认芯联集成8寸MOS代工7月二次+15%,申万/alphapai自2月持续覆盖),周期方向明确向上。
- 但直接受益A股已充分price-in:扬杰+20.5%/5d、士兰微+40%/20d、华润微+28.5%/20d、新洁能+18%/20d,均贴52周高、主题4个月旧、券商饱和覆盖,追高R/R差,扬杰当日已-2.2%见获利了结。
- 美股AOSL/POWI是主题外溢叙事:AOSL本已YTD翻倍、最近一日+9~11%系其自身AI功率(PCIM展会)催化而非本条中国涨价,亏损小盘高波动;'减轻中国价格压力'逻辑对AOSL略适用,只宜回调小仓试,不追开盘gap。
主要风险
- 主题已扩散、price-in中等:A股贴顶、美股已popped,此处追高易接最后一棒;AOSL亏损($1.37B小盘、日波动~9%),回调单不触发则空仓、触发后仍可能续跌。
- 中国涨价对美股是间接read-through(非硬催化、Twitter叙事>公司事件),存在sell-the-news风险。
历史先例(按相似度)
- 600460 2020-12-01 2021涨价周期起点,士兰微率先发布SGTMOS调价函,A股随后7个月涨超270% 原文 ↗
测600460 A股在2020年12月功率半导体首轮调价公告后至2021年7月的阶段涨幅 - 300373 2021-01-01 扬杰科技2021涨价周期翻倍以上,归母净利同比+100%,与当前事件同主体直接可比 原文 ↗
测300373 A股在2021年功率半导体集体涨价周期核心阶段的累计涨幅 - 688396 2021-01-01 华润微2021涨价周期,A股初至7月涨幅68%,归母净利同比+129% 原文 ↗
测688396 A股在2021年功率半导体涨价周期2021年初至7月的阶段涨幅 - 605111 2026-02-26 当前涨价周期起点,新洁能2026年2月MOSFET涨价10%,与当前事件同轮首批公告参照 原文 ↗
测605111 A股在2026年2月本轮首批调价公告(当前周期起点)发布后的短期反应
原文全文
展开原文 · 934 字
Looks like Power Semis are already starting price hikes.
Which is bullish thematically for US power semi trade from $AOSL to $POWI, before the 800V DC shift fully hits.
China's Yangjie Technology, announced a 2nd price increase this year, raising prices across its full product range by 10%-15%, July 1.
Chongqing China Resources Micro, Silan Microelectronics, and NCE Power also price hiked.
“Demand is playing a larger role than costs in the latest round of price increases” from AI DCs, to energy systems, and new EVs.
Another potential beneficiary is the upstream material companies that make these:
- nonferrous metals like copper and tin.
-Plastic molding compounds
- chemicals, and packaging consumables
“Nearly all major Chinese power semiconductor makers have raised prices in 2026.” (Digitimes)
So positive read through on power semi adjacent (reduce China-driven price pressure + better pricing + demand validation)
Which is bullish thematically for US power semi trade from $AOSL to $POWI, before the 800V DC shift fully hits.
China's Yangjie Technology, announced a 2nd price increase this year, raising prices across its full product range by 10%-15%, July 1.
Chongqing China Resources Micro, Silan Microelectronics, and NCE Power also price hiked.
“Demand is playing a larger role than costs in the latest round of price increases” from AI DCs, to energy systems, and new EVs.
Another potential beneficiary is the upstream material companies that make these:
- nonferrous metals like copper and tin.
-Plastic molding compounds
- chemicals, and packaging consumables
“Nearly all major Chinese power semiconductor makers have raised prices in 2026.” (Digitimes)
So positive read through on power semi adjacent (reduce China-driven price pressure + better pricing + demand validation)
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