🐦 推特SerenityV3 · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 06-26 08:34:45时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-26 11:43:31·⚡ 决策 06-30 06:50:11 +3d19h·119.4 天前
中国功率半导体厂商二次涨价(扬杰7月1日全线提价10-15%),博主外推为美股功率半导体AOSL/POWI利好
信号的核心读法(中国涨价→利好美股AOSL/POWI)方向虽名义看多,但真实价格行为直接证伪:AOSL周内-8.4%、POWI周内-9.6%,市场没有为这条'减轻中国价格压力'的弱二阶读透付费
📄 原文Serenity@aleabitoreddit↗ 原文
Looks like Power Semis are already starting price hikes. Which is bullish thematically for US power semi trade from $AO…
不做 AOSL.US
弱二阶读透,且股价周内-8.4%直接证伪'中国涨价利好美股功率半导体'的看多假设;真正提价的是中国竞品而非AOSL本身,无edge,不追下跌中的标的(lesson #3)
不做 POWI.US
读透更弱(高压AC-DC IC,与中国MOSFET离散器件提价基本不相关),周内-9.6%、PE 263已贵,800V DC为远期叙事非当下催化,无可博edge
观望 300373.SZ
本次7月1日提价的直接发起方(真催化在A股端),但已抛物线兑现:20日+40%、6/29单日+10.5%、距52周高仅-3.85%,涨价已充分price-in;在+10%单日近高位追多风险收益比为负,仅在出现显著回调(如回20日均线一带)时再评估,届时另出决策
不做 605111.SH
提价同步受益方,但20日+36%且已站上52周新高、6/29单日+8.4%,透支最极端,追高=FOMO顶,price-in风险高
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
🔎 新鲜度:最早出现 2026-06-25 · 扩散 high · price-in 风险 high ↗
关键理由
- 信号的核心读法(中国涨价→利好美股AOSL/POWI)方向虽名义看多,但真实价格行为直接证伪:AOSL周内-8.4%、POWI周内-9.6%,市场没有为这条'减轻中国价格压力'的弱二阶读透付费
- 真正拿到催化剂(直接涨价=毛利上行)的是中国厂商,而它们已抛物线式上涨:扬杰20日+40%(6/29单日+10.5%)、华润微+44%、士兰微+52%、新洁能+36%且已到52周高——涨价(7/1生效)已被充分price-in
- 事件已偏旧(距今94小时,Digitimes 6/25发、多家转载,'7月涨价潮'是公开主题),无论美股端还是A股端都没有新鲜edge可博
主要风险
- 若A股功率半导体题材仍有惯性,扬杰/新洁能等可能继续冲高,我的'已price-in、不追'判断会错过尾部动量;但在+10%单日、近52周高、4天旧闻处追多的风险收益比明显为负
- AOSL有较重中国MOSFET敞口,理论上受益于中国竞品提价(竞争压力减轻),若后续自身提价兑现可能反转——但需其本身公告确认,当前仅为博主推断
原文全文
展开原文 · 934 字
Looks like Power Semis are already starting price hikes.
Which is bullish thematically for US power semi trade from $AOSL to $POWI, before the 800V DC shift fully hits.
China's Yangjie Technology, announced a 2nd price increase this year, raising prices across its full product range by 10%-15%, July 1.
Chongqing China Resources Micro, Silan Microelectronics, and NCE Power also price hiked.
“Demand is playing a larger role than costs in the latest round of price increases” from AI DCs, to energy systems, and new EVs.
Another potential beneficiary is the upstream material companies that make these:
- nonferrous metals like copper and tin.
-Plastic molding compounds
- chemicals, and packaging consumables
“Nearly all major Chinese power semiconductor makers have raised prices in 2026.” (Digitimes)
So positive read through on power semi adjacent (reduce China-driven price pressure + better pricing + demand validation)
Which is bullish thematically for US power semi trade from $AOSL to $POWI, before the 800V DC shift fully hits.
China's Yangjie Technology, announced a 2nd price increase this year, raising prices across its full product range by 10%-15%, July 1.
Chongqing China Resources Micro, Silan Microelectronics, and NCE Power also price hiked.
“Demand is playing a larger role than costs in the latest round of price increases” from AI DCs, to energy systems, and new EVs.
Another potential beneficiary is the upstream material companies that make these:
- nonferrous metals like copper and tin.
-Plastic molding compounds
- chemicals, and packaging consumables
“Nearly all major Chinese power semiconductor makers have raised prices in 2026.” (Digitimes)
So positive read through on power semi adjacent (reduce China-driven price pressure + better pricing + demand validation)
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