🐦 推特JukanV3 · 实盘不做把握 5/10
北京时间·🕒 发布 06-26 15:12:01时区推断·⟳ 抓取 06-29 14:11:49回填·⚡ 决策 06-30 02:34:07·119.5 天前
联想称内存高价是'新常态'、DRAM/NAND涨价或持续到2030后——纯行业评论非硬催化
信号点名的联想(00992.HK)是内存采购方/成本受害者而非受益方——'内存高价成新常态'压制其整机毛利与需求,逻辑上偏利空,且其6/29已应声跌-9.2%,既无做多逻辑、又不构成可越过做空红线的强催化(软性行业评论+已下跌)。
📄 原文Jukan@jukan05↗ 原文
>> Lenovo: Rising memory prices are the “new normal”; elevated DRAM and NAND pricing to persist beyond 2030 • The era o…
不做 00992.HK
联想是内存采购方/成本受害者而非受益方,信号方向于其偏利空但无做多逻辑;且6/29已应声跌-9.2%、消息为83小时陈旧软性行业评论(非造假/暴雷/指引下修类强催化),不满足做空红线(强催化缺失),故不裸开空——既不可做多、又不可做空、move已发生,无可执行edge,回避。
不做 301308.SZ
最直接的真受益标的,但已抛物线跑完——近一年约10倍、近5日+17%、今日+6.4%且贴历史新高(距高仅-0.06%),内存超级周期是当下最拥挤共识交易,本条83小时陈旧联想评论为确认而非新信息,在顶部追入price-in风险高、EV为负,回避(不追顶)。
展开详情(成交明细 / 研究档案 / 原文全文 / 决策记录链)
研究档案
关键理由
- 信号点名的联想(00992.HK)是内存采购方/成本受害者而非受益方——'内存高价成新常态'压制其整机毛利与需求,逻辑上偏利空,且其6/29已应声跌-9.2%,既无做多逻辑、又不构成可越过做空红线的强催化(软性行业评论+已下跌)。
- 真正受益的内存厂(江波龙/美光/海力士/三星)早已抛物线式跑完:江波龙723元、近5日+17%、20日+31%、近一年约10倍、今日+6.4%且贴52周/历史新高(距高-0.06%),这条83小时陈旧、被10+媒体转载的共识叙事是'确认'而非新信息。
- 内存超级周期(AI/HBM挤占常规DRAM/NAND产能,DRAM稼动率2026>90%[2]、领先制程仅3家[6])是当下最拥挤的半导体宏观交易,price-in风险极高,在抛物线顶部按陈旧软新闻追入EV为负。
主要风险
- 动量风险:超级周期若进一步加速,江波龙等强势内存股可能继续上冲——但那是追顶,非本信号给出的可重复edge。
- 联想-9.2%可能更多是从翻倍后高位回撤的获利了结、而非纯内存成本叙事所致;联想具备转嫁定价能力,故也不能把这跌幅简单解读成干净的做空信号。
原文全文
展开原文 · 627 字
>> Lenovo: Rising memory prices are the “new normal”; elevated DRAM and NAND pricing to persist beyond 2030
• The era of cheap digital devices is coming to an end. Lenovo warned that DRAM and NAND flash prices have already entered a structural upcycle, and that even if major suppliers continue to expand capacity, prices are unlikely to return to early-2025 levels.
Higher costs are being passed through across the entire industry. Going forward, all types of electronic devices, including PCs and smartphones, are expected to face sustained price-increase pressure, with higher prices becoming the “new normal” beyond 2030.
• The era of cheap digital devices is coming to an end. Lenovo warned that DRAM and NAND flash prices have already entered a structural upcycle, and that even if major suppliers continue to expand capacity, prices are unlikely to return to early-2025 levels.
Higher costs are being passed through across the entire industry. Going forward, all types of electronic devices, including PCs and smartphones, are expected to face sustained price-increase pressure, with higher prices becoming the “new normal” beyond 2030.
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